It may not be that easy for Rana

Though Union rural development minister Kanshiram Rana seems to be confident of winning the Surat Lok Sabha seat, the failure of the Surat airport project to take off may dent his chances.

The airport has been an issue in almost all elections. Rana, who has won the seat in the last five elections, has failed to give Surat a full fledged airport.

Rana has been winning the Surat Lok Sabha seat, one of the biggest seats in Gujarat, for five successive elections from 1989. The margin of victory has also been on the rise.

In 1999, Rana defeated Rupin Patchigar of the Congress. But infighting within the Congress was a chief cause for Patchigar's defeat.

Rana launched his campaign for this year's elections in a mini "Bharat Uday Yatra" on March 17 from Surat city. The Congress has not even finalised its candidate for the seat.

"My win is a foregone conclusion. Even if Congress president Sonia Gandhi contests from Surat I am not worried," Rana said at a recent press meet.

One of Rana's main plus points is his able campaign manager Fakirbhai Chauhan, who is known as the "think tank" for his planning of election campaigns.

However, when Rana was textiles minister, the Surat textile industry, which manufactures over 60 per cent of the total man made fabric requirement of the country, faced tough times. The industry went on three big strikes, the last one against the introduction of Cenvat in the textile industry in 2003.

Manubhai Patel, the chief of the Federation of Gujarat Weavers Association (FOGWA), a prot"šg"š of Rana, also parted ways and joined the Congress.

Another factor against Rana is C R Patil. Once an ally of Rana, Patil has promised to try to ensure the defeat of Rana. Patil is out on bail in the Diamond Jubilee loan scam case and blames Rana for his troubled times.

Besides, the Patel lobby, which controls the diamond industry, is also not overtly Rana friendly.

Says an observer: "The fight in Surat has become lopsided. If the Congress fights like a united party and fields a strong candidate like Patchigar, there would be some interest in the contest."

With a huge migrant population, caste and community factors have not played an important role in the Surat constituency. Rana belongs to the Gola community.

Surat mainly comprises Patels (kolis, kadwas & leuwas), the ghancis, golas and khatris. It also has a high percentage of the Hindi-speaking people from Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The Muslims also have a presence with a 14 per cent share of the population.