Jaswant pegs growth at 8% for FY04

Inflation seen around 4-4.5% by March '04

Finance Minister Jaswant Singh yesterday said the economy would grow at about eight per cent in 2003-04.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 5th Indian Oil and Gas Conference here, he said the Gross Domestic Product growth in the third and fourth quarter of 2003-04 "would match, if not exceed, the growth rate of the second quarter".

According to official data, the economy logged an 8.4 per cent growth in the second quarter.

The minister said he expected the financial year to end with the inflation rate at 4-4.5 per cent. He said this would be lower than the current rate of 5.5 per cent as the government was closely monitoring the price behaviour, leaving no room for complacency on the inflation front.

Striking an upbeat note in his speech, the minister said, "The economy is on a roll. The macro economic indicators have never been better".

The key reform agenda for the government now was the review of the existing limits on foreign direct investment and foreign institutional investment and putting in place a computerised tax system with the scope for only a minimum number of exemptions, he said.

The minister said the proposed sale of 10 per cent of the government's equity in Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Gail (India) Ltd would enable the Centre to attain the disinvestment target for 2003-04, besides allowing retail investors to share the buoyancy in prices.

The finance minister claimed he would have been able to surprise the country on the financial position of the Centre in the interim Budget.

However, he will not be able to table the mandated three documents on the medium- and long-term fiscal policy framework and the deviations from the expenditure and revenue projections of the Centre, which are supposed to be tabled in Parliament as per the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act along with the Budget. The Economic Survey will also be given a miss.

According to the minister, India will invest in new energy sources. Making an oblique reference to the proposed transcontinental pipeline projects, Singh said, "Cooperation in the energy sector (among nations) is essential to promote energy security for the country."

He said India would need an investment of $100-150 billion in the sector in the next ten years to meet the demand for energy, which will be next only to China.

Singh said it would be misleading to treat the upcoming vote-on-account as an interim Budget.

He said the total revenue and expenditure positions of the Centre for the current financial year, along with the Gross Budgetary Support for the annual Plan and the allocations for the ministries will also figure in the document.