Kerala voters have to choose the lesser evil

Will the Kerala local body elections open the possibility of re-grouping of political parties in Kerala? What will be the fate of the Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran), the new party under the leadership of veteran political leader K Karunakaran? These are some of the questions that have come up after the recent local body elections in Kerala.

Most observers confidently predict that the next ministry in Kerala will be under the leadership of Left Democratic Front (LDF). The results of the recent local body elections and the last Parliament elections have clearly placed the people's mandate on the LDF.

Of the 140 assembly seats in the state, LDF had clear majority in 115 constituencies, according to the voting pattern of the local body elections. This was also the case in 111 constituencies in the Parliament elections.

But most observers also agree that it is the demerits of the UDF, rather than their own merits, that the LDF is banking on. The bipolarity of the state's politics (there is no other option than the UDF or LDF) is working to the advantage of the less disliked formation which is currently the LDF.

But the assembly elections are still almost one year away and there may be new political alliances as both the LDF and UDF are facing internal tussles.

At present the UDF is in trouble as out of the 14 district councils, it had secured only two and that too courtesy the Indian Union Muslim League in Malappuram district.

The split in the Congress party and the withdrawal of RSP and Kerala Congress factions had made UDF a shadow of what it was in the assembly elections in 2001. K Karunakaran and his DIC (K) was a decisive factor in the local body elections since a large majority of the rank and file of the party is still loyal to him.

The failure of Oommen Chandy as the chief minister and of Ramesh Chennithala as the chief of KPCC are obvious from the election results and under their leadership the UDF may again come to grief in the next elections.

By analysing the political factors astutely, A K Antony had stepped down as chief minister and operated on a very low key in state politics. Though Oommen Chandy had tried his level best to give a new image to the ministry through several development initiatives like the smart city project, his failure in key areas like law and order, development of traditional sectors and communal harmony were the reasons for the defeat in the elections. The UDF is still a force only because of the support of the Muslim League which has a command over Muslim voters.

But it is interesting that both the fronts are supporting the UPA government and while fighting each other in Kerala. The dialectical rational behind this is difficult for the CPM rank and file to appreciate, though they are opposing some of the decisions of the UPA government. But the state leadership of CPM is in a dilemma since it can not oppose the Congress very strongly.

The question of formal inclusion of DIC(K) is also a problem for the LDF as K Karunakaran was the staunchest opponent of the CPM till a few months ago. Not surprisingly the state leadership of CPM is divided over association with the DIC(K) which it describes as only a seat adjustment not a formal alliance.

The state unit of the CPI(M) is also facing factional problems which even politbureau members cannot resolve. This is evident from the selection of R Nazar as president of District Panchayat of Alappuzha amidst a row over the issue between the V S Achuthanandan and Pinarayi Vijayan faction of the CPM.

As the district committee failed to sort out the issue the state committee had to do the selection.