Kharif outlook bright as monsoon still rumbles

MONSOON WATCH

With monsoon still active in most parts of the country, conditions for kharif crops remain favourable. The paddy crop in surplus-producing regions of Punjab, Haryana and adjoining areas is at the grain-formation stage.

Elsewhere, transplanting is continuing, though the area under paddy has already exceeded last year's acreage by over 2 lakh hectares.

However, the area under oilseeds has fallen this season by about 6 per cent, chiefly due to less planting of groundnut in parts of Andhra Pradesh for want of rain in July and early August. This shortfall is unlikely to be made up. The sowing of pulses, cotton and sugarcane has been good.

The major concern now is diseases and pests, especially due to humid conditions in regions which have received high rainfall in the past few weeks. So far, the situation on this front is reported to be below the threshold in most places.

The monsoon rainfall, which was below normal from the second week of June till early August, turned normal, thanks to heavy downpour in several regions in August and September.

The total rainfall in the country till September 6 was 756 mm, against the normal 758 mm. There is every possibility that the season will end with surplus rainfall.

Significantly, many parts of the country are still getting rains, though conditions in the north-western tip of Rajasthan are gradually turning favourable for the withdrawal the monsoon.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) expects rains in the southern peninsula to continue for at least 3 more days.

Notably, the IMD models suggest formation of another low-pressure area over west-central Bay of Bengal around September 16, which will sustain enhanced rainfall activity in the southern peninsula till around September 19.

Besides, fairly widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy to very heavy showers, are projected for north-eastern states, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the next two days.

Moreover, a western disturbance is currently moving across the north-western hilly areas and the adjoining plains and is causing scattered rainfall in the entire region.

These rains are forecast to persist for a day or two. The water in the country's major 76 reservoirs had risen by September 7 to 116.35 billion cubic metres (BCM), around 18 per cent higher than the 99 BCM held on this date last year and 36 per cent above the past 10 years' average.

The level in many dams is still rising. The situation is deemed conducive for hydel power production and irrigation in the winter and next summer.

Reports on crop sowing received by Krishi Bhawan till September 8 indicate that paddy has been planted on about 348.5 lakh hectares, against 346.2 lakh hectares by this time last year.

The coverage of coarse cereals is, however, relatively low at 204 lakh hectares, against last year's 218 lakh hectares. This is largely due to lesser sowing of bajra because of poor rains till July-end.

The area under maize is about 4.5 lakh hectares more than last year's 67.2 lakh hectares. Among commercial crops, the area under cotton has expanded to 87 lakh hectares from last season's 83.6 lakh hectares and that of sugarcane to 44.45 lakh hectares from last season's 42.8 lakh hectares.

The area under pulses is almost the same as last year's 108 lakh hectares. High-priced pulses like urad and moong have gained in area while arhar has lost some acreage.

Among oilseeds, the area under groundnut has dropped by about 16 per cent to 46.4 lakh hectares, though that under soyabean has expanded by about 3 per cent to 80.15 lakh hectares.

Farmers in the north-western region have been advised to apply a second dose of urea to paddy which is at the ear-formation stage.

This will minimise the damage due to loss of nitrogen in the wake of last week's heavy rains.

In the north-east, where rainfall is still deficient, farmers have been advised to take advantage of the anticipated rains in the next few days to plant alternative short-duration crops. Similar advice has been given to cultivators in the southern peninsula where rains are anticipated to increase in the next few days.