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With the southwest monsoon ending the first half of the 2015 season with a deficit of five per cent, kharif sowing entered its final phase with a nine per cent uptick in area compared to the corresponding period last year.
According to the latest data from the department of agriculture, kharif crops have been planted in 76 million hectares till Friday, which is nine per cent more than the year-ago period. Sowing is complete in 72 per cent of the usual area under kharif crops, which is 105 million hectares.
With the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting the monsoon intensity to continue over north and central India in the first 10-15 days of August as well, there is a possibility that the sowing of most crops, except paddy, will be over by the end of next month.
Among other crops, pulses have been planted in eight million hectares till Friday, which is more than the seven million sown during the corresponding period last year.
Normally, pulses is sown in 11 million hectares during the kharif season.
Oilseeds have been sown in 15 million hectares till Friday, up from 14 million sown during the corresponding period last year. Rice, the main foodgrain grown during the kharif season, has so far been planted in 23 million hectares, down from 24 million sown during the corresponding period last year. The normal rice area during the kharif season is 39 million hectares.
Last week, the Centre had fixed a target of purchasing 30 million tonnes of rice from farmers in 2015-16 season, which will start in October.
The southwest monsoon was 21 per cent more than normal during the week ended on July 29, its best weekly performance so far in 2015 season due to copious rains in Gujarat and south Rajasthan.
According to IMD, the strong revival in rains not only lowered the overall deficit to five per cent below normal from a high of seven per cent during the start of July, but also narrowed the monthly shortfall.
The rains are expected to be good in the first half of August. Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in its forecast said rains are expected to be above normal till August 10-15, after which the monsoon might take a break for a few days.
Private weather forecasting agency Skymet in its latest weather update said the good run of southwest monsoon is likely to continue till the first week of August.
For August, Skymet said rains would be 92 per cent of the 50-year long period average (LPA) and for September, it would be 112 per cent of LPA. These forecasts are with a model error of plus and minus nine per cent. Skymet said in August that rains would take a break between 15 and 20 and revive after that.
Delhi is expected to get good rains around the first week of August, which would give the much-needed respite from the sultry conditions, Skymet said.
For the full-season, though, the private weather agency has lowered its forecast to 98 per cent of the LPA - down from 102 forecast in April in view of the initial lull in rains in early July.
However, despite the strong revival, there have been pockets mostly in Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka, Bihar, and Rayalaseema and Telangana, where the monsoon is still 50 per cent less than normal.
It is in these pockets that the possibility of a drought looms large, unless there is significant revival in August.
