Even as the country gets into the Indian Premier League cricket fever and betting on franchisees heats up, a different kind of battle has bookies in West Bengal enthralled --that of the state assembly elections.
If these bookies are to be believed, come May13 when results will be announced, Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress (TMC) are set to sweep the polls with a two-thirds majority. The current rate indicates Banerjee’s party as the favourite, at 25p return per rupee bet, as opposed to Rs 3.75 per rupee if the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) returns to power. The smaller the rate of return, the higher the rated chances of a party’s victory.
“By our calculations, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee stands no chance as a chief minister again. TMC will be the single largest party, in alliance with the Congress and will form the government with Mamata Banerjee as the CM,” said a leading Kolkata-based bookie.
While betting on anything other than horse racing is illegal in India, bookies are active across the country. Bets range from cricket, an all-time favourite to elections and even on things such as whether or not the monsoon will arrive in India on time. In the Bengal satta market, an estimated Rs 350 crore is expected to change hands. The return on CPI(M) getting 95-102 seats is Rs 1.75, while TMC at 200-215 seats is being traded at Rs 1.25.
“According to our estimates, CPI(M) is likely to get a little less than 100 seats, while Trinamool-Congress will not be able to cross 215 seats. However, this can change as the polls progress after the first two phases and the overall picture should become clear after the last phase,” said the bookie.
Those involved in the market believe the satta more than the opinion polls. “The only time I have ever seen them go wrong was in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. Otherwise, the market is usually spot on with predictions,” said a businessman betting on Mamata Banerjee as the chief minister.
Elections in West Bengal, which began on Monday, are to be held in six phases, ending May 10.
