The country is poised to get its 12th successive normal monsoon this year, auguring well for not only agriculture but the economy as a whole.
The south-west monsoon has set in over the Andaman and Nicobar islands and is likely to hit the Kerala coast around the normal time, causing more or less normal precipitation throughout the country in the June-September rainy season.
The normal date for the monsoon to break over Kerala is June 1. A departure of up to one week on either side is deemed normal. Starting on June 1 over the Kerala coast, the monsoon normally advances to Calcutta between June 5 and 10 and reaches Mumbai by around June 10. Its scheduled arrival in Delhi is June 29. It usually covers the entire country by July 15.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is, however, yet to finalise its prediction about the likely performance of the monsoon. It usually releases its long-range forecast around May 25.
According to the weather office, the south-west monsoon reached the Andaman sea and adjoining parts of south-east Bay of Bengal on May 20, bringing good rainfall in the Andaman and Nicobar islands.
Asked about the state of the monsoon current and the conditions for its further advance towards the mainland, IMD deputy director-general S R Kalsi said: "Everything is all right and favourable at present. We are studying the situation and would come out with our long-range forecast in a few days."
He said the recent Arabian Sea-borne cyclone over Gujarat coast that drifted to Pakistan before moving towards south-west Rajasthan had, fortunately, not affected the south-west monsoon in any adverse manner. "It could have created problems if it had moved westwards," he added.
The dreaded El Nino, which normally causes droughts in many parts of the world, has subsided now. It had become aggressive in 1997 but started receding in 1998 before vanishing completely. Caused as a result of the abnormal warming up of the Pacific Ocean, El Nino did not have much impact on the monsoon rains in India in the past two years.
La Nina, the reverse of El Nino caused by unusually cold water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that followed the recent El Nino, is deemed favourable for the monsoon precipitation. The south-west monso
