There is a political tradition in Kerala that the voter mandate swings between rival fronts. Since 1982, that has meant between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
Two prominent poll surveys, by Asianet TV and India Today, conducted a few weeks earlier, indicated something similar this time, a comfortable win for the UDF (the LDF swept the 2006 poll). However, with the campaign at its peak, it appears a tough contest in most of the 140 seats, with little evidence of a ‘wave’ in favour of either.
Earlier, the UDF was considered a sure winner. However, in the past six-odd months, a series of socio-political developments put it on the defensive. Some old scandals, such as the ‘ice cream parlour sex case’ have resurfaced and a founder leader of the UDF, former minister Balakrishna Pillai has even been ordered to a jail term by the Supreme Court in the Edamalayar dam construction scam. All these have eroded its earlier easy confidence.
The king pin in giving all these blows to the UDF is Velikkakath Sankaran Achuthanandan, the incumbent chief minister. At 87, he’s leading the LDF fightback. A remarkable achievement, given that he was rated a failure as a CM a year before and was also battling his own state party structure, dominated by his rivals. In fact, the state party leadership had, as in 2006, insisted he be denied even a ticket to contest the Assembly elections.
The pattern in this ragard was set at the outset of his administration, when he ordered an offensive on illegal construction and land encroachments in the popular tourist resort of Munnar. It was considered a failure, with court stays and reprimands, and without support from his own ranks. Yet, his party and he now boast of having regained 75,000 hectares earlier lost to various land mafias.
It was, again, VS who had been instrumental, in both his earlier stints — as the Opposition head in the state Assmbly and then as the CM — in pursuing the case against Balakrishna Pillai. The relentless campaign against corruption and misuse of office is what VS has got associated with. It has led to the intetresting fact that he is far more popular than his LDF: Both poll surveys found that a majority of voters wanted VS to be the next CM, by a substantial margin.
This was not the case even six months before. It had given the CPM state leadership another argument to sideline him. But VS refused to accept this, fought back hard, and publicly. Now, his bitter opponents in the LDF say he would be their CM if the alliance is re-elected.
Mixed record
As a CM, his administration is considered to have a good record on various welfare measures, but not so in development of industrial and commerical sectors, especially as compared to the progress in the neighbouring states such as Tamil Nadu. It is a telling argument used by the UDF, in pointing to the efforts of his two Congress predecessors, A K Antony and Oommen Chandy.
The 2001-06 UDF goverment had targetted investment of Rs 50,000 crore and the actual figure was about Rs 25,000 crore. Land prices had surged by 100-300 per cent. In the past five years, private sector initiatives have hardly totalled Rs 10,000 crore; land prices have been generally static.
An example is Kochi’s ‘Smart City’ project. During the final weeks of his rule, Oommen Chandy had completed discussions with Dubai’s Tecom to commence it; he couldn’t sign the contract due to the poll code of conduct. VS approved, with significant changes; the foundation stone took a year more to unveil. Since then, the mega information technology project is yet to start, with various issues cropping up between the government and Tecom. These were resolved only recently, with a new contract signed.
There has been improvement in state-run enterprises. Of the 85 such units, only 15 made a profits under the UDF; 69 are doing so now, and against a combined loss of Rs 96 crore in 2005-06, there is now a profit of Rs 300 crore. The LDF has also given cover to a large number of poor workers under various pension schemes, with the minimum raised to Rs 400 a month from Rs 200 in 2006. The UDF government had not attempted to increase the pension.
The ration shop system is also more effective, and is getting some praise from the central government, too. This has forced the UDF to compete in this regard. The government in its last budget had announced a Rs 2/kg rice scheme to all, irrespective of income. The UDF is now promising rice at Rs 1 a kg.
Education is another sector where the Left has lagged. Antony’s government introduced self-financing professional colleges in the state, to stop the flow of students to other states, with half the seats reserved for poorer sections. The LDF’s tinkering in this regard has only provoked minority communities (40 per cent of voters). There’s constant turmoil in admissions and the fee structure of medical colleges, for instance.
Power generation and the state’s financial record are considered plus points for the LDF, compared to the UDF regime. What is not clear is the balance of all these factors in the minds of voters. The middle class, for instance, is perceived to take some of these achievements for granted and to be restless at the comparative lack of progress on education and job opportunities.
Will VS’ image as a graft-fighter and his welfare schemes suffice to outweigh the negatives, including his many open fights with his own party structure, to buck the usual trend of governments alternating. No one is sure of that.
