Left may pull the rug

Says mid-term polls likely in 6 to 8 months; N-deal breaking point.

Peeved at the way the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government is functioning, Left parties are set to distance themselves from the UPA in every possible way, a move that could culminate in a mid-term election ahead of 2009.

"An election might take place in six or eight months," a Left leader told Business Standard.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee told Business Standard, "As long as the government runs, problems will be there."

The four Left parties hold 61 seats in the Lok Sabha and although they are not part of the government, their support is critical for the UPA, which needs 272 members of Parliament (MPs) for a simple majority in the 545-member House. The UPA has about 248 MPs in the Lok Sabha. 
 

THE ALIGNMENTS
Left	61
UPA	248
Indian National Congress	150
Rashtriya Janata Dal	24
Bahujan Samaj Party	18
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	16
Nationalist Congress Party	11
PMK	6
JMM	4
Lok Janshakti Party	4
MDMK	4
RLD	3
Other small parties	8
Total (UPA + Left)	309
National Democratic Alliance
BJP	132
Shiv Sena	12
Biju Janata Dal	11
Shiromani Akali Dal	8
Janata Dal United	7
AGP	2
Smaller parties	4
Total	176

The major point of difference has been the civil nuclear deal with the US, commonly known as the 123 agreement after the relevant clause in the US Atomic Energy Act. "I cannot say the crisis is over. We have to wait for a few more days," Mukherjee said.

This morning, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mukherjee met Communist Party of India (Marxist) General Secretary Prakash Karat over breakfast but could not reach any concurrence on the 123 agreement.

Left leaders said the 123 agreement was too complex to be turned into an election slogan but the breach was likely to widen mostly on economic and social issues. The Indo-US nuclear deal will act as "the cap on the head", according to a Communist party leader.

Pointers for a mid-term poll also come from the strong pressure on the Left parties from within their organisations and parliamentary parties to snap ties with the UPA.

Last night, at a meeting of the CPI(M) parliamentary board, almost all MPs told party bosses the party should exit the coordination committee, which is already defunct, and opt for issue-based support to the UPA. Karat reportedly told the MPs the four Left parties were already thinking on these lines and this decision could be taken.

A large number of the party's Central Committee members have also told members of the party Politburo to review ties with the UPA, which they said was "more intent on publicising and pushing ahead its own policy with scant or no attention to the promises made during the formation of the UPA and Left co-ordination committee".

The issue is likely to be discussed at a Politburo meeting on August 17 and 18, which will ultimately be followed up by a Central Committee meet in mid-September.

"We have been tolerating the UPA's whims for the last three years. The time has come when we need to turn around and protest," said a co-ordination committee member.

The CPI has also convened a meeting of its central executive on August 17 and 18.

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Possible flash points

The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority Bill, 2005: Pending for over two and a half years in Parliament, the finance minister would like to institutionalise it but the Left will vote against it. The BJP is likely to support it but the government would not like to take the BJP's help to pass it.

The Banking Regulation (Amendment) Bill: The left is bitterly opposed to raising foreign investment limits and will mobilise all possible opinion against it. Once again, for its survival the government will have to take the BJP's help.

PF interest rates: Cannot be voted but will become a campaign issue