 "Livestock, forestry and fisheries save the day for agri sector")
Good production in the livestock, forestry and fisheries sector seems to have saved the day for the entire agriculture sector, which recorded a marginal increase in the growth rate at 2.2 per cent for the second quarter of 2015-16, compared to the same period last year.
The agriculture and allied sector grew at 2.1 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2014-15 and it was expected to perform poorly this year mainly due to droughts in several parts of the country.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, too, agriculture and allied sector surprisingly grew from 1.9 per cent in the April-June quarter to 2.2 per cent in the July-September quarter.
The statement furnished by the Central Statistical Office showed 51 of the gross value-added (GVA) in agriculture and allied sector comes from the livestock, forestry and fisheries sector, which grew six per cent during the quarter, much better than the overall growth.
The core crop sector performed poorly due to a drop in production of many kharif crops on account of poor southwest monsoon in 2015-16.
The statement said the production of cereals, oilseeds and pulses registered growth rates of (-)1.8 per cent, 8.5 per cent and (-)1.1 per cent during the July-September quarter.
According to the first advanced estimate of foodgrains production furnished by the department of agriculture, foodgrains production in the 2015-16 kharif season is expected to be 124.05 million tonnes, around four million tonnes more than the first advanced estimate of 2014-15. This is, however, less than the final production of the corresponding year.
"Surprising on the upside, agriculture GVA growth was the highest since September 2014 at 2.2 per cent... the downside in agriculture appears to have been cushioned by the 'allied-agri' sector," Shubhada Rao, chief economist, YES Bank said in note.
Rao said although the allied sector in agriculture might continue to remain supportive, rabi sowing needs to be watched carefully as sowing has started on a slow note owing to a delayed harvest as well as an unusually dry winter in northern India. Data showed that till November 27, rabi crops together have been sown in 31.79 million hectares of land, which is 5.46 million hectares less than the same period last year. "The jump in agriculture and allied sector growth during the second quarter of 2015-16 was mainly due to increase in production of dairy, meat, fish as crop sector continues to be bad," said P K Joshi, south Asia director of International Food Policy Research Institute. India's southwest monsoon in 2015 was 14 per cent less than normal, registering its worst performance since 2009. Monsoon this year was the first back-to-back drought for India in three decades, and only the fourth in about a century. Almost 40 per cent of the country received less than normal rains in 2015, forcing seven states to declare drought.
REAPING BENEFITS
- The agriculture and allied sector grew at 2.1 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2014-15
- On a quarter-on-quarter basis, too, agriculture and allied sector surprisingly grew from 1.9 per cent in the April-June quarter to 2.2 per cent in the July-September quarter
- 51 of the gross value-added in agriculture and allied sector comes from the livestock, forestry and fisheries sector, which grew six per cent during the quarter, says CSO
- According to an advanced estimate, foodgrains production in the 2015-16 kharif season is expected to be 124.05 million tonnes, around four million tonnes more than the first advanced estimate of 2014-15
- India's south-west monsoon in 2015 was 14 per cent less than normal, registering its worst performance since 2009
