Low turnout may help Congress

Was it the weather? Or the fact that Lok Sabha and Assembly polls were not being held simultaneously? Or was it a disgruntled voter? Or a combination of all these factors?

Despite appeals from leaders such as Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, deputy prime minister L K Advani and chief minister Narendra Modi, voters in Gujarat did not seem enthusiastic enough for participating in the first phase of polls that took place yesterday.

According to officials of the Election Commission, the tentative polling percentage for all the 26 seats of Gujarat was about 42 per cent, a good five per cent below the 47.03 per cent polling in the preceding parliamentary elections in 1999.

In the immediate reaction, the Congress turned jubilant, while the BJP adopted a guarded approach. Stating that the results will bring a "shocking surprise" to the BJP as this is a vote against the NDA and the state government, the Congress seems confident of adding to its tally of five seats in the previous LS.

On the other hand, the BJP too contends that it will add to its tally, and two factors - the heat and the fact that LS and Assembly elections were not held simultaneously, were responsible for the lower turnout. BJP general secretary and spokesman Arun Jaitley referred to these factors for lower voter turnout.

"In the 1991, 1996 and 1999 general elections, when Assembly elections were not held simultaneously, the voter turnout in Gujarat was 44 per cent, 36 per cent and 47 per cent, respectively. In contrast, when both elections were held simultaneously in 1998, the turnout was 57 per cent," he said.

"But according to reports that we have received through our organisation, the turnout will not affect BJP performance," claimed Jaitley, adding that the party will hopefully add to its tally.

He added that polling behaviour in every state has a pattern and in Gujarat there was invariably a low turnout when LS polls were held alone.

Jaitley refused to respond to a query on chief minister Narendra Modi's assurance to PM about delivering all the 26 seats in the state to BJP kitty.

"I am not among those who will give numbers, but we will increase our tally," he said.

In sharp contrast, the Congress camp seemed jubilant. "It (the low turnout) is a vote against both the NDA as well as the Gujarat government," claimed state Congress chief B K Gadhvi.

"The BJP is in for a shocking surprise in Gujarat," said Gadhvi.

Without delving into the numbers game, Gadhvi said that one indication that the BJP will not fare well is the fact that the turnout has been low even in BJP strongholds.

The Gandhinagar and Surat constituencies are such example. Both deputy PM L K Advani (Gandhinagar) and Union minister Kashiram Rana (Surat), had won the 1999 LS elections with margins of over 1.50 lakh votes.

With a lower turnout, these margins seem distant. In fact, the Varachha pocket of Surat, which is considered to be a BJP bastion, witnessed low polling even as coastal areas, where the Congress candidate Chandravadan Pithawala is strong, witnessed relatively high turnout.