Low voter turnout may rattle BJP stalwarts

When he cast his vote this morning, deputy prime minister Lal Krishna Advani was looking happy surrounded by saffron-scarved cadres in large numbers.

But as the day went on, the five Union ministers contesting from Gujarat grew anxious. Not only did the state see a low voter turnout in spite of all efforts by the BJP to convince voters to participate, the backward castes also stayed away. The BJP has been confident of support from the backward castes and tribals after the Godhra riots.

Advani is contesting from Gandhinagar against Gabhaji Thakore of the Congress who has a strong hold in the backward classes. Kanshiram Rana, the rural development minister, is taking on a first-timer, Chandravadan Pithawalla from Surat.

Minister of state for tourism, Bhavnaben Chikhlia is contesting from Junagadh against Jasu Barad of the Congress. Minister of state for defence production Harin Pathak is fighting Rajkumar Gupta, a senior state Congress leader who is contesting parliamentary elections for the first time.

Ballabhbhai Kathiria, minister of state for heavy industries, is contesting from Rajkot against Nationalist Congress Party's Balwant Manwar.

Political observers in the state consider Rajkot to be the safest among all five seats where former Union ministers are contesting.

Though official figures were not available till late on Tuesday, sources in the state election commissioner's office said that the average turnout was in the 42-44 per cent range. They added that the lowest turnout was recorded from some booths in north Gujarat, specially in tribal-dominated areas.

"In comparison to the last Parliamentary elections, the turnout is definitely lower in most constituencies. However, in Advani's constituency (Gandhinagar), the polling was on an average of 45 per cent. We strongly believe the deputy prime minister will have a cakewalk this time too," said a BJP spokesperson from Ahmedabad.

His Congress rival Thakore, aware of his strength in the tribal areas, convinced villagers outside Gandhinagar city to cast votes in heavy numbers which led to a hike in voters' turnout in this constituency late in the day.

"Let the BJP leaders claim that all 100 per cent voters who exercised their franchise on Tuesday will favour Advani. Wait till May 13 and it will be clear that the Congress has done much better this time, though winning against Advani may not be possible," said a senior Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCCC) member.

In Pathak's Ahmedabad constituency, while the minority voters remained reluctant to vote "" may be because of the new candidate fielded by the Congress "" voters from middle-class and upper middle-class, who are known to be committed BJP voters, also preferred to stay back at home.

"It is an extra holiday not marked in the year's holiday calendar and so it is better to watch movies, spend time with family members and then go out in the evening. I do not find any point in standing in queues for hours braving the scorching heat for casting vote for candidates who can only be seen in television channels before the elections," said a corporate bigwig based in Ahmedabad.

In spite of low turnout, Pathak, however, remains confident. "The minority community preferred to remain at home largely because of the lack of organisational skills of the Congress and its candidate. Moreover, they have more confidence in me and our party than in Congress. In spite of low turnout, I am sure of my victory."

However Rana is not that happy with the low turnout in Surat. "I admit that even some of our committed voters preferred not to vote this time. This may be because of the heat and other reasons, but it is definitely not a good sign for the party and for me," he said.

Even senior BJP leader and Union law minister Arun Jaitley told a media conference in Ahmedabad that the lower turnout was not expected by the party.

The possibility of Chikhlia winning from Junagadh is also not too strong despite the Congress fielding a weak candidate, Jasu Barad.

"BJP leaders even used airconditioned vehicles to draw voters but not with success. Many of its own voters preferred to stay away from casting votes. The low turnout may come as a boon for us," said Shaktisinh Gohil, senior state Congress leader from Bhavnagar.

However, a BJP spokesperson said: "If old persons and handicapped people are extended any such support, it should be appreciated, not criticised."