Minefield awaits nuclear deal at NSG, IAEA

Indian officials fear opposition from China, demand for exceptions for N Korea.

Negotiating India-specific safeguards for India's civilian nuclear reactors with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and ensuring a consensus in the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) to ensure nuclear fuel for India are going to be the next challenges before the final Indo-US nuclear deal reaches the US Congress for ratification, top officials say.

Over the next three months, Indian officials will be working to ensure that the IAEA agrees to an unparalleled exception in its history "" allowing a non-NPT signatory into a club that knows only two categories of states: Those with nuclear weapons and those without it. India is in a unique position. It has nuclear weapons but has not signed the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It wants to continue its nuclear programme for military purposes but is willing to allow the IAEA to inspect its civilian nuclear facilities.

The scope of IAEA inspections will be the thrust of India-specific safeguards. This agreement is imperative if India wants to have credibility in the eyes of the world that it will not divert fuel meant for its peaceful programme for military purposes. It is also a legal requirement. This will have to be completed within three months in order to wind up all negotiations on the deal by the end of the year, officials say.

An equally complex process will have to be followed at the meeting of the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG), which works on the basis of consensus. A 1992 NSG rule restricts nuclear trade with non-nuclear-weapon states that do not subject all nuclear enterprise to IAEA safeguards.

The US has said it will help India overcome hurdles in the NSG. But here, China, which had criticised India's 1998 nuclear tests on grounds that it hadn't signed the NPT and was a threat to world peace, would have to be convinced.

China's arguments may have some takers, especially as the world sees the US as pursuing its own objectives in supporting India, in the guise of non-proliferation goals.

The supporters of the US are likely to fall in line but those who see the Indian exception as a precursor to similar exceptions by their neighbours may have their doubts ""for example, South Korea, which fears that North Korea, assisted by China, may demand a similar exception, or Croatia, which thinks its neighbour Slovenia may also seek an exception.

The US has said it will help India overcome NSG reservations. This could turn out to be both a blessing and a curse.

Because an exception will have been made on account of the US' friendship with India, other countries "" Iran in the case of Russia and Pakistan in the case of China "" may be seen by the NSG as seeking similar exceptions.

Therefore, winning the IAEA and NSG battle could be as challenging as the negotiation for the 123 Agreement.

Further pressure will come in form of US elections in 2008, which means India must wind up everything by the end of 2007 to enable the US Congress to end the up-and-down vote before June next year. Elections for president, House of Representatives and Senate are due in the US in November 2008. If the deal is not voted by then, it will become infructous and the property of a House that has been dissolved.