Monsoon exit delayed by a month

The monsoon has begun withdrawing from north-western part of the country almost a month behind the normal schedule with rainfall being about 5 per cent above normal against 7 per cent below normal predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The actual cumulative monsoon rainfall till September 26 has been 914.7 mm, exceeding the normal rainfall of around 880 mm for the entire monsoon season between June 1 and September 30.

The south-west monsoon, which had set in over Kerala on May 28, 4 days ahead of schedule, withdrew yesterday from most parts of west Rajasthan and some parts of Punjab, Haryana, east Rajasthan and north Arabian Sea. Conditions are now favourable for it to recede from more parts of north-west India, Rajasthan, some parts of north-west Madhya Pradesh and north Gujarat in next 2 to 3 days.

However, the IMD has predicted scattered to fairly widespread rainfall in south peninsula and Orissa in the next 3 to 4 days as the monsoon has not yet withdrawn from these areas.

Normally, the monsoon begins bidding adieu to the western-most part of Rajasthan from September 1 and recedes from most parts of northern India by mid-September. It withdraws from the entire country by around mid-October.

The IMD's first long-range monsoon forecast issued in April, based on new statistical models adopted this year, had projected the total rainfall to be about 95 per cent of the normal, or 5 per cent below normal, with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent.

But its second and updated forecast, released in June after the actual onset of the monsoon, had scaled down the expected rainfall to 93 per cent of the normal, or 7 per cent below normal, with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent. However, the actual rainfall is likely to turn out to be around 5 per cent above normal.

Of the country's 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 30 have received normal or above normal rainfall. The 6 rain-deficient sub-divisions (with deficiency in brackets) include Punjab, (-28 per cent), Haryana, including Delhi and Chandigarh (-33 per cent), Himachal Pradesh (-36 per cent), west Uttar Pradesh (-40 per cent), east Uttar Pradesh (-22 per cent) and east Madhya Pradesh (-32 per cent).

In terms of districts, about 368, or 72 per cent, had received normal or excess rainfall and 125, or 24 per cent, deficient rainfall till September 26. The rest have received only scanty rainfall.