Monsoon hits Kerala 6 days ahead of schedule

The south-west monsoon today hit the mainland over Kerala and advanced to parts of Tamil Nadu, six days ahead of its scheduled date of June 1. Last year, the monsoon had set in over Kerala on June 5, four days later than its normal date.

The Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon is also fairly active and is expected to break over parts of north-eastern states like Tripura, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh in the next day or two, according to the Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

The Centre has predicted that the monsoon is likely to remain active and advance northwards to cover coastal Karnataka and some more parts of Tamil Nadu by tomorrow or the day after.

Significantly, the northward movement of the monsoon is likely to continue over peninsular India during the next four days. The normal date for arrival of the monsoon in Delhi and adjoining areas is June 29. However, the north-western region may experience isolated showers due to local factors over the next few days.

The Centre's prediction model indicates that a western disturbance is likely to approach Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining areas by May 28. It is likely to cause isolated to scattered rainfall or snowfall over hilly regions of north-western India between May 28 and 30.

The India Meteorological Department has projected the total rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June to September) at 93 per cent (plus or minus 5 per cent) of the long-period average of 89 cm.

The new models deployed by the department have predicted the probability of below 90 per cent rainfall at only 22 per cent.

An update on this long-range monsoon forecast is scheduled to be issued in the first week of July.

However, timely or early onset of the monsoon is no guarantee of its normal advance or overall performance during the entire season, experts point out. Last year, after striking Kerala on June 5, it advanced rapidly over southern parts of the peninsula and reached as far as Goa on the west coast by June 8.

Subsequently, it remained confined to the west coast for the next eight days. As a result, the total rainfall till the end of the second week of June was deficient by a whopping 59 per cent.

The north-eastern region of the country also had to wait last year till June 16 for the onset of the rains. This marked a delay of nearly two weeks from the normal date.

Such a delay for the north-eastern states is not too common. It has happened only on four occasions since 1960 "" 1979 (onset on June 23), 1981 (June 17), 1983 (June 20) and 1986 (June 16).

This year, so far the monsoon situation is fairly satisfactory in all respects.