India’s monsoon, which accounts for four-fifths of the nation’s annual rains, may reach the southern state of Kerala earlier than normal, improving prospects for an early planting of crops such as rice, oilseeds and cotton.
Rains may hit the southern-most coast starting May 26, the New Delhi-based India Meteorological Department said on its website today. The actual onset can be four days before or after the forecast date, the bureau said. The four-month season typically begins on June 1. Adequate rainfall may help the new government that will take office this month sustain the record 4.3 per cent average growth in farm output since 2005, raising incomes among the 742 million Indians who live in the countryside.
The ruling Congress party-led coalition may have won the most seats without securing enough votes to form a government, based on exit polls after a five-week election that ended yesterday.
“Timely rains always boost sentiments, be it of the stock market or the economy,” KN Rahaman, deputy head of research at the Way2Wealth Commodities, said in Mumbai.
“Agricultural commodities will see prices dropping in the next few days as sowing will increase on timely rains.”
India’s 235 million farmers, together the world’s second — biggest producers of rice and wheat, rely on the rainy season to water their farms as about 60 per cent of the arable land isn’t irrigated. Winter-harvested crops, including corn, lentils and soybeans, are planted after the onset of the monsoon.
Monsoon rains this season may be 96 per cent of the 50-year average, the weather office said on April 17.
The central region may receive more showers than last year, while falls in the southern parts may be the same as last year, according to D Sivananda Pai, a director at the weather bureau. Regions in the northeast and northwest may receive less showers than last year.
The bureau classifies rainfall as near normal when it’s between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average.
Rains may set over parts of Bay of Bengal and the south Andaman Sea starting May 20, its normal date of arrival, the weather bureau said today.
