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The southwest monsoon, which has been slightly active over the northwest India for the past one week, might weaken from the middle of August, the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has shown.
IITM has said rainfall would be mainly confined to peninsular, which includes the southern states, and northeast India from the middle of August. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), too, in its daily forecast, said rainfall would decrease over central, north and western India from August 14.
A break in showers over the northwest India, which comprises Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Delhi, could add on to the deficit, as the region has so far received the least amount of rain.
Data from IMD showed the rain in northwest India has been 29 per cent below normal from June 1 till August 10, the least in the country, while it has been 25 per cent below normal in east and northeast India.
In Punjab, the monsoon has been 59 per cent deficient so far, while in Himachal Pradesh it has been 38 per cent deficient, in western UP, the rain has been 47 per cent below normal, while in national capital region of Delhi, the rainfall has been 55 per cent less than normal so far in this season.
“If the rains go for another round of prolonged break, it could cause a big problem, as showers so far have been very scanty in north India,” a senior government official said.
Overall, the total deficiency in the country from June 1 to August 11 has been around 17 per cent, which is lower than the deficiency of 2009 -- the last time when India suffered a major drought.
The southwest monsoon entered India around June 5, after a delay of almost four days, but thereafter it did not progress, raising the prospect of a widespread drought. However, the rain gained momentum from the second week of July, speeding up the planting process.
The kharif crops have been planted in around 80.33 million hectares till Friday, while the total area sown during the season is usually 107 million hectares. In other words, with just a month-and-a-half remaining for the monsoon to start retreating from India, around 25 per cent of the area still remains unsown.
The biggest drop in the area has been witnessed by coarse cereals, oil seeds and pulses, while the area under rice cultivation is near its normal acreage.
The government, meanwhile, has announced a diesel subsidy of 50 per cent to enable farmers to re-plant their damaged crops.
