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India is likely to get even less monsoon rain than estimated in last month's warning.
India Meteorological Department (IMD, the government's official weather watch) announced on Monday that it estimated the rain at 93% of the 50-year average from 1950 (termed LPA, the long period average), against the 95% it had projected earlier, both considered sub-normal.
There are high chances of the emergence of an El Niño weather formation, obstructing the formation of clouds, it said. The government has already said it was alert to the possibility of sub-normal rain; it reiterated this on Monday in the Presidential Address to Parliament, too.
Except for the northeast, every other part of the country is expected to receive less than normal rain, says IMD, with the northwest states likely to be worst hit. The latter -- Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Chandigarh, Delhi and UP -- is likely to get rain at 85% of the LPA during the four-month season, starting June. Paddy, sugarcane, pulses and coarse cereals are grown in this season in these areas.
Rain in central India -- Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha and Chhattisgarh -- is expected to be 94% of LPA. Oilseeds, pulses, cotton, paddy and coarse cereals are grown in these parts in this season.
IMD's second-stage forecast says rainfall will be deficient in June and less than normal in July but there could be a slight recovery in August.
Rain below 90% of the LPA is taken as deficient, 90 to below 96% as sub-normal, 96 to less than 104% as normal, 104 to 110% as above normal and over 110% as excess.
"Till now, rainfall across the country is almost 44% below normal and is expected to remain so in the current week. A pick-up will come from the middle of June. But it won't be sufficient enough to wipe out the deficiency," said IMD director-general L S Rathore.
Rain at 93% of the LPA for all of India is 82 cm in absolute terms. The 50-year average is 89 cm. IMD puts the chance of an El Niño development in this monsoon at 70%.
El Niño is a band of warm ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the Pacific coast of South America, causing disruption in rain worldwide. In the past 14 El Niño years, eight had deficient rain across the country; in four, rainfall was below normal.
"We're preparing accordingly, be it on crop, power, irrigation, or other fronts," said earth sciences minister Jitendra Singh.
For farmers, the met department said it would issue short-term forecasts to enable sowing decisions. Singh said the cabinet secretary's office was coordinating plans with the agriculture, water resources and power ministries to face the sitation.
Earlier in the day, while listing the priorities of the Narendra Modi government, President Pranab Mukherjee said, "My government is alert about the possibility of a sub-normal monsoon this year and contingency plans are being prepared."
