As the southwest monsoon progresses steadily across India, sowing of kharif crops has picked up pace. However, that of paddy, coarse cereals and oilseeds were, till Friday, still less than their normal area, an average trend of around 10 years.
This raised doubts over output in these crops at a time when food inflation had been in double digits for the three months till May. However, sowing of pulses, witnessing major inflationary pressure in recent times, saw a rise during the period.
According to the agriculture ministry, paddy has been sown on 5.54 million hectares till Friday, almost 26 per cent less than last year. More important, the area under paddy was 36 per cent less than the normal, of 7.24 mha.
“I feel some of the shortfall in paddy area will be covered in the next 10-15 days, as sowing can continue till end-July, but all said and done, there would be some impact on the yields, as late sowing does not give the same results as timely planting does,” said Ashok Gulati, chairman of the Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices.
He said the critical factor would be rain in the next couple of weeks and also thereafter, as there was a looming scare of the El Niño weather phenomenon impacting the monsoon during the second half of the four-month season that began in June. Gulati’s fears are not unfounded, as the data showed the area under coarse cereals was as much as 158 per cent less than the normal at this time. “Yes, coarse cereals are a problem, but we are hopeful that as rain progresses, more area will come under it,” a senior agriculture ministry official said.
The rain delay of almost 10 days has weaned away farmers in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat from coarse cereals to pulses, whose area is more than the normal and what was seen in 2011.
The data showed farmers across India had planted pulses on 1.3 mha, about 5.3 per cent more than last year and 49 per cent more area than the normal.
“I’am most worried about pulses and want its production to be more this year because, globally, there is a huge shortage and even a drop of 10 per cent in production could push up domestic prices by 30-40 per cent,” Gulati said.
Wholesale price-based inflation in pulses has been in double digits since October last year, barring a short exception in February. For May, it was 16.61 per cent.
While inflation in manufactured products has been less than six per cent for the four months till May, the rate of price rise in food items has been pushing up overall numbers.
Inflation in manufactured items was 5.02 per cent in May, down from 5.12 per cent in the previous month, while food inflation rose to 10.74 per cent from 10.49 per cent over the period. This pushed up the headline number to 7.55 per cent from 7.23 per cent during this period.
Oilseeds have been sown on 2.65 mha, almost 29 per cent less than last year, and also less than the normal area.
Meanwhile, “there is all possibility that the southwest monsoon would cover the entire country in the next two to three days,” L S Rathore, director general of the India Meteorological Department told Business Standard.
Most farm experts believe the southwest monsoon just covering the entire country is not enough; the momentum should be maintained over the next two months.
“The break in monsoon is normal, but the fear is that there should not be an elongated break of more than 10 days, particularly over the rainfed areas of the country,” another expert said.
The June rains were almost 30 per cent below normal this year. “I feel that yields of paddy, coarse cereals, oilseeds and pulses are most vulnerable,” Gulati added.
