This year’s monsoon will be a little less than normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said.
The southwest monsoon is expected to be 95 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), less than the April forecast of 98 per cent and just short of the 96-104 per cent range that IMD considers normal.
Northwest India, which includes the main grain-growing regions of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, would receive close to 97 per cent of the LPA rainfall (which is 89 cm), said IMD. The projection for central India, comprising the pulses- and oilseeds-growing states of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat, is 95 per cent of the LPA. A deficit (94 per cent of the LPA) is projected for south India.
East India, comprising the main paddy-producing states of Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and Orissa, is expected to get below normal rain (95 per cent of the LPA).
| MET DEPARTMENT’S SOUTHWEST MONSOON FORECAST (REGION-WISE) | |
| Northwest India | 97% |
| East India | 95% |
| Central India | 95% |
| South Peninsular India | 94% |
| Source: India Meteorological Department | |
“This should pose a challenge to the government’s plan to increase rice production in 2011-2012 to 102 million tonnes from 94.11 million tonnes last year,” said Ashok Gulati, chairman of the Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices.
Most economists say that any fall in rice production should not be a problem as the country has sufficient stocks.
“The only problem is the stupendous farm sector growth of over six per cent seen in 2010-2011 may not be sustained this year,” said an economist who did not wish to be named.
The government’s grain stock is estimated to be 65.59 million tonnes, much above the buffer requirement of 31.9 million tonnes.
“The prediction of below normal rain is not a cause for worry as we are preparing for that and have sent advisories to farmers to alter their sowing pattern accordingly,” said science and technology minister Pawan Kumar Bansal.
The predictions come with a model error of plus/minus four per cent.
IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi said the intensity of the monsoon might weaken in the beginning of July before gaining strength again.“Between April and June, some things have changed. The La Nina phenomenon, which we had expected to fall, has become neutral, meaning it may or may not impact the monsoon. Also, the North Atlantic pressure on ocean waters has become neutral. We had expected it to come down,” said IMD’s Tyagi.
Last year, large parts of east India had suffered a drought.
Agriculture and allied sectors contribute 19 per cent to India’s gross domestic product. A good monsoon raises farm output and rural incomes, thus creating additional demand for industry.
India’s economy grew 8.5 per cent last financial year and hopes of making it grow by 9 per cent this financial year do not seem a possibility. The finance ministry is already in the process of revising down its growth target. A poor monsoon may also impact the government’s fight against inflation, which has forced the central bank to tighten the monetary policy, in turn hitting industry.
