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How alarming is the threat of poor monsoon this year, given that IMD has forecast rains equivalent to 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA) which is below average?
Forecast of 95% of LPA is not a cause for alarm as of now, but it is an indicator of below normal rains in the coming months. How bad is the situation we will be able to tell only around June when we come out with our second stage forecast. This forecast is a signal for policymakers and also others to start preparation.
The IMD has said that there is 60% of El Nino in 2014. Given that in the past several years El Nino had caused droughts in some parts. How big is the problem this time around?
Well, the forecast signifies that compared to previous months, now we have considerable confidence that El Nino will happen this year. How it will impact Indian monsoon will only be known later.
What would be your advice to farmers, who would start making preparations for sowing the kharif crop in the next few months?
Well, it is too early to give any advice to farmers and the situation will unfold more clearly in June. But, for the time being we can say that below normal rains could have a little more pronounced impact on the food basket. They (farmers) should go for planting short duration crop varieties which take less time to mature. It (crop output) all depends on rainfall distribution even though total rainfall might be less. I think it is too premature to give any firm advice to farmers.
In what regions could the impact of below normal rainfall be more pronounced in 2014?
I feel that semi-arid regions of the country which includes peninsular India, central and North West India could have a less than normal rainfall in 2014. Though it is too early to predict, But, I feel the monsoon situation this year could be similar to 2012. In 2012, the overall southwest monsoon was 7% below normal. The rains arrived late and its progress over many parts of the country was sluggish thereafter.
