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The sudden weakening of the monsoon over some parts, particularly the northwest, has raised doubts as to whether the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was premature in declaring its onset over all parts on June 16, much ahead of the norm. L S Rathore, its director-general, tells Business Standard they're sticking to their analysis. Edited excerpts:
Some private weather forecasters, such as Skymet Weather Services, say IMD probably declared the monsoon onset over North India too early, as the subsequent rainfall has been weak.
Skymet has little knowledge of the monsoon phenomenon and they need to mature in their predictions.
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Yes, indeed; who says the monsoon has not arrived? It has been raining in patches and will revive in due course.
So, how do you attribute the current weak phase over northern India?
The monsoon is a complex weather phenomenon and in the four- month period, the rains can sometime be active and sometime take a break. This does not mean the onset criteria changes.
Your forecast of last week said the rains were likely to revive over parts of northern India from the middle of next week. Overall, the rains in July are expected to be better than August. Are you sticking to your forecast?
We issue all our forecasts after careful analysis and study and, yes, we are definitely sticking with all our predictions.
