The southwest monsoon, which caused considerable concern this year because of its erratic performance, has started withdrawing.
According to the India Meteorological Department, the monsoon receded from western Rajasthan and parts of Saurashtra and Kutch today, a day after the normal schedule of September 15. The monsoon is generally active from June 1 to September 30 though the actual withdrawal continues well into October.
IMD sources point out that rainfall is likely to continue for some more time in the northeastern region and eastern parts of peninsular India. This year, the total precipitation during the monsoon season so far is estimated at 66.73 cm, against a normal 81.11 cm.
The deficiency in total rainfall, which was 30 per cent at the end of July, has come down to 18 per cent because of good rainfall in August and the first fortnight of September in most parts of the country, barring western Rajasthan.
Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions in the country, 20 have so far received normal or excess rainfall, 15 deficient and one scanty precipitation. Of the total 523 IMD districts, 330 districts fall in the deficient to scanty rainfall category.
This year, the monsoon had begun on a promising note, hitting the Kerala coast on May 29, three days ahead of schedule.
However, after some good initial showers, the monsoon activity dissipated by the end of June, leaving large parts of northwestern India rainless. Consequently, July witnessed the minimum rainfall in nearly 100 years. However, the monsoon revived again in August, advancing to the northwest and bringing copious precipitation in most parts of the country.
The IMD had earlier predicted a normal monsoon this year with the total rainfall expected to be around 101 per cent of the long-period average of 88 cm during the four-month period.
Considering the present deficiency of around 18 per cent and with only two weeks of the season to go, experts fear that the prediction of normal monsoon may not hold true this season.
