Most crops promise growth in output

MONSOON WATCH

Regardless of the vagaries of the monsoon, which were several and severe, the south-west monsoon season has ended this year with almost 100 per cent normal rainfall and an optimistic outlook for farm production.

Sowing of most crops, barring paddy in some southern states, is over, and the standing crops are in good shape. Fresh paddy has already started arriving at mandis in Punjab and Haryana, heralding the start of the kharif grain procurement operations.

Attack of insects and diseases has been reported from many areas, but the situation has not crossed the threshold levels so far. The output of most crops, barring groundnut and coarse cereals, notably jowar and bajra, is likely to record positive growth.

The south-west monsoon arrived early (May 26, instead of June 1), but began withdrawing late (September 21, instead of September 1). It has now bid adieu to most parts of the north-western, northern and central regions.

The withdrawal line passed through Raxaul, Allahabad, Bhopal and Porebandar on October 3. At the same time, it is still pouring in several areas, including West Bengal, Goa, and coastal Karnataka. This spell is predicted to last another 2 to 3 days, especially in Goa, Konkan, and coastal Karnataka.

The distribution of rainfall during the season was highly erratic in terms of both time and space. July, the crucial period for sowing of several crops, including oilseeds, was by and large dry in many areas.

Of course, a part of the crop loss on this account could be mitigated through sowing of alternative crops after the resumption of rains. But more disquieting was the excessive rainfall in several pockets, causing floods in most unlikely areas like Surat in Gujarat and vast desert tracts in western Rajasthan.

The cumulative seasonal rainfall in the whole country turned out to be normal because of 16 per cent excess rainfall in the central region, though all other regions remained rain-deficient in varying degrees.

While meteorological subdivisions like Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat recorded more than 55 per cent excess rainfall, western Uttar Pradesh clocked rainfall 43 per cent below the normal level. Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, and eastern Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, too, recorded rainfall deficiency ranging from 23 to 38 per cent.

However, thanks to the overall normal rains, the water storage in the country's 76 major reservoirs has been much above the long period average.

According to the Central Water Commission, the total water stored in these dams on September 28 was 120.45 billion cubic metres, some 11 per cent above the last year's corresponding position, and over 29 per cent above 10 years' average. As many as 72 of these 76 reservoirs were over 80 per cent full. Only one dam, Gumti in Tripura, was less than half-filled.

Reports received from the states indicate that paddy, the main kharif cereal, has already been sown on over 36.1 million hectares, against 36.2 million hectares in the previous season by September-end.

While paddy sowing is over in most states, it is on in the south. Some incidence of leaf blight in the north, notably Punjab, and thrips and blue beetle pests in the south, especially Karnataka, has been reported. The overall production may be around last year's level of 78 million tonnes, experts feel.

However, the situation with regard to coarse cereals is not as good. The sowing is almost over, but the total area planted with these crops is down from last season's 23 million hectares to 21 million hectares due to the lack of July rains. Maize is the only crop for which the area has increased, by some 5 per cent, thanks to a projected high demand from the poultry industry.

The area coverage under kharif oilseeds, too, is down about 6 per cent to 16.4 million hectares this year. The shortfall is largely due to lower planting of groundnut in Andhra Pradesh, which witnessed a prolonged dry spell in July-August. But soyabean acreage is higher by 4 per cent, and the production is likely to exceed last year's level.

Kharif pulses have managed to occupy about the same acreage as last year, about 11.2 mn hectares, despite erratic rainfall during their main sowing season.

This is attributed largely to the high ruling prices.

Among other commercial crops, the area under cotton and sugarcane has expanded perceptibly, while that under jute and mesta has remained almost the same as last year. The condition of these crops is said to be good, raising hopes of production gains.