The political temperature in Uttar Pradesh is very high in the aftermath of Mulayam Singh's survival rally in Lucknow and Mayawati's counter rally in Etawah.
The confrontation is on. The Samajwadi Party will begin its jail bharo agitation from July 20 and the stir will peak by the Independence Day, when the former Prime Minister, H D Deve Gowda, has threatened to sit on an indefinite hunger strike against the atrocities on SP workers. The BSP will be using the state power to crush the agitation.
The basic strategy of the Samajwadi Party, to come back in the reckoning, is three fold. Firstly, it plans to win over large sections of the upper castes who are as estranged with the cultural aggression of Mayawati as are the backwards. Sections of the upper castes and the backwards are also against the taking away of the land which was allocated to the SC but is still being cultivated by the dominant sections of the villages, both upper castes and the backwards. SP is aiming to win over these sections.
Secondly it has no use for Dalits, especially the chamars or jatas, who are all solidly behind Mayawati and the BSP. Therefore it has taken a conscious stand against Ambedkar. It is no more repeating the rhetoric that Ambedkar is the architect of the Constitution, but has now stated that he was only the governor of the drafting committee of which there were other scholars who too were members. They have castigated him for never participating in the freedom struggle and never opposing British.
Ambedkar was a national leader, but then there are over two dosen leaders
who were above him, during that period.
Here the point is not that which assessment is correct, but that SP has reviewed its strategy on Dalits and that it has revised its opinion of its leadership as well. It has gone back to its original understanding.
Now it is striving to win over the passion. The second largest caste among the SC's. Ram Vilas Paswan will be the leader in this campaign. Janeshwar Misra said it openly in its rally, Paswan ji hame apki madad Dalit ke mamle main chahiye. Is baat per ham pit rahe hain. (Paswan, we need your help in Dalit matters).
Thus the alliance which the SP has in mind now is that of Yadavs, Muslims, other backwards, Passis and sections of upper castes to win the elections on its own. This will require some measure of anti-Dalit especially anti-chamar hysteria to succeed. A rise in tension is on the cards. In fact it is already there and clashes could start at any place. This would directly help SP. the BSP has only one answer to it. Resort to state power, to police.
The third plank of SP strategy is to convince the other partners of the UF that SP is at the receiving end and then to pressurise the Prime Minister to dismiss the Uttar Pradesh government.
This could take place just before the Deve Gowda's fast set to start from August 15. By this time the situation will be fairly volatile so to warrant presidential intervention.
The Samajwadi Party's jail bharo agitation will be ritualistic. It does not have the cadre of the kind which could wage these agitations. Therefore it has to depend on the social tensions to rise sufficiently to disturb peace on a large scale.
The BSP will have to resort to police force to contain social tensions since in most areas the Dalits are weakly placed in comparison with the backwards and the forwards.
