All eyes are on Doda now. Six Assembly constituencies go to polls on September 30 in Doda, which is regarded a militant-infested" district, with a majority of them foreigners. Given the hilly terrain and the vulnerability of the local population, half of them Hindus, the militants have often struck terror in the district with mass murders, wiping out entire families at times.
It is in this background that people will be voting to elect their representatives to the state Assembly after nine years. Traditionally, Doda has been a stronghold of the National Conference, which has won four out of the six seats in the district.
The influence of the National Conference in the Doda Assembly constituency has remained restricted to the Muslim population. Because of the selective targeting of Hindus by secessionist militants, a sort of polarisation has resulted in the area. Hindus have rallied behind the BJP candidate Kulboshan. The National Conference candidate, Molvi Attaullah Suharwarday, who is also a senior Vice President of the party, has the distinction of having stayed among his people all these years. He has functioned as the Imam at Doda's only Jamia Masjid and is, therefore, quite an influential person in the area.
Both the Janata Dal and the Congress have fielded Muslim candidates. The Dal candidate, Ghulam Qadir Wani, is known to wield some influence in certain pockets of Doda. Participation of Muslims in the polls will have to be watched. There is apprehension that while the Muslim vote might be shared by the National Conference, Janata Dal and the Congress, most of the Hindus would prefer the BJP candidate.
The chance for the National Conference in Doda, according to informed sources, will brighten only if there is a large participation by the Muslims. Farooq Abdullah already counts Doda in his tally of expected seats in the new Assembly.
In Bhaderwah, a reserved constituency till this election, the NC has won only twice "" in 1957 and 1962. Now that the constituency has been de-reserved, the National Conference, which has not fielded a candidate, is supporting the BSP candidate Sheikh Abdul Rehman, who is the state president of the party. The BSP is banking on a major chunk of Dalit votes. The Congress and the BJP also expect votes in the constituency, but political pundits predict that the victory of the BSP candidate from this constituency is a foregone conclusion.
Kishtwar, which has the largest concentration of militants, is agog with posters spelling death for those who come out to vote on September 30. The militants call the shots here and electionering is subdued. The NC has fielded Bashir Ahmad Kichloo, who has not been popular with the people of Kishtwar. Given the expected low turn out because of militant threats, analysts say it would be a surprise if the NC manages to win Kishtwar. The Hindus are definite to come out and vote, with the advantage going to the BJP. INC candidate Ghulam Hassan Arjan too poses a threat to the NC candidate. He enjoys some influence in certain areas of the constituency.
In Banihal, where the NC has fielded Molvi Abdul Rashid, the contest is between him and Congress candidate Hamidullah Khan, a former advisor to the Governor. But, traditionally, Banihal has been an NC stronghold and not much seems to have changed here.
In Inderwal, the NC candidate, Jalal-ud-Din, is a new entrant into politics. It's a safe seat for him because of the predominant Gujjar voters, who were recently visited by Mian Bashir Ahmed and advised to vote for the NC. The Mian is a force to reckon with in Gujjar dominated areas of the state. Although the BJP and the Congress have also put up candidates against Jalal-ud-Din, there is not much of a contest in Inderwal.
In Ramban, the Congress has always been the most popular political party. But during the years of insurgency, the BJP as emerged as the strongest party with most of the Hindu population supporting it. Its candiate Jagat Ram and BSP candidate Bele Ram have formidable influence here, but the NC is putting up a brave front, banking largely on Muslim voters, whom they expect would turn out in large numbers to vote against the BJP.
