India will face the most difficult test in its quest for civilian nuclear energy when the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group meets in Vienna on Thursday to decide whether India, a non-NPT country, can be allowed nuclear commerce with its member countries. A day before the crucial meeting in Vienna, officials in the Indian foreign office seemed confident that it would be able to pass the NSG barrier.
The NSG waiver for India will mean the government can enter into nuclear commerce with countries like Russia and France, irrespective of what happens to the 123 Agreement on the Indo-US civilian nuclear co-operation in the US Congress.
According to a South Block official, “This will not only give India a unique recognition in the world of nuclear powers, but the US will also be under pressure that it may lose business if its Congress fails to pass the 123 Agreement.” India has already clinched a safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the global watchdog of civilian atomic plants.
According to sources, most of the countries are in favour of allowing a ‘clean exemption’ to India. “There is a healthy majority in NSG supporting the deal,” said an official in the external affairs ministry. Although the NSG, an informal club of nuclear material suppliers, requires complete unanimity and there is no precedence of resolving an issue through voting, India is confident that its case will overcome the hurdles.
The biggest concern is, of course, China, which has not made any public statements in support of India in NSG. But South Block officials maintain that China generally doesn’t do anything in an international body where it may get isolated.
China’s stand in the NSG has always been keeping in mind the stand of other major players. As most of the major countries like France, Germany and US are strongly in favour of the deal, China might not oppose it tooth and nail, feel the sources here.
The latest objection from New Zealand has failed to create ripples in the Indian establishment. New Zealand has been all along opposed to the Indo-US nuclear deal, “and there is nothing new in its stand.” said an official, adding, “However, we don’t think it will be able to muster other members in support of its stand.”
The Manmohan Singh government has already sent a delegation headed by Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon to Vienna to hold a special briefing for the 45 members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) on Wednesday. As India is not an NSG member, it will utilise the opportunity to brief the 45 countries at the IAEA headquarters before the two-day meeting starts on Thursday. The delegation also includes prime minister's special envoy Shyam Saran.
However, South Block feels that the case may not be resolved in these meetings. Some representatives might seek more time to go back to their countries and talk to their political leadership. India is expecting one more round of meeting in the first week of September to get the NSG waiver.
