Naidu's knotty numbers

Is it time for N Chandrababu Naidu to start worrying? His enemies "" the Congress, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), and the Left parties "" have teamed up. That means the electoral arithmetic could turn against him in the coming elections.

Certainly, the Andhra Pradesh chief minister shouldn't take the new alliances lightly. The fact is that in the 1999 elections around 80 Telugu Desam (TDP) legislators scraped home by slender majorities of less 3,000 to 5,000. Naidu knows that his hold on power is, therefore, more slender than it might seem at first glance.

There are other statistics which reveal how weak Naidu's position may be. The percentage gap between the votes polled by the victorious TDP-BJP combine and the Congress Party in the last Assembly elections in 1999 was a mere 2.83 per cent. In fact, the Congress polled a slightly higher number of votes than the TDP but the combined strength of TD-BJP proved decisive.

The TDP draws its strength from a contingent of around 60 leaders who have won five Assembly elections ever since the party was formed in 1983.

Nevertheless, the TDP's discomfiture can be seen in the way the party and Naidu have reacted to the alliance between the Congress and the TRS.

A clearly unnerved TDP is now stridently denouncing the Congress-TRS alliance and saying that it goes against the interests of the coastal Andhra region, It has also raked up earlier statements by TRS supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao who made the Krishna River water issue the major bone of contention between the Telangana and coastal regions of the state.

But even if this strategy works out the TDP will only gain marginally because it is already very strong in the coastal region. Out of a possible 134 Assembly seats on offer in the coastal region (comprising Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam, Nellore, East and West Godavari, Srikakulam and Visakhapatnam districts), it won a whopping 100 seats in the last Assembly elections.

There are other ominous signs for Naidu. The last time a by-election was held in Medak in the Telangana region in 2002, the TDP candidate came out victorious because the triangular contests between the Congress, TRS and the TDP ensured a split in the anti-incumbency votes. This time round Naidu has no such luxury to fall back upon thanks to the Congress-TRS alliance.

According to the political analysts, a strong anti-incumbency wave is also washing over the Telangana region and that's why the opposition has a strong chance of outperforming the TDP-BJP combine.

The analysts say the voters in Telangana are embittered because of insufficient irrigation facilities, rising unemployment and the lack of remunerative prices for agriculture produce. In addition, there's the TRS saying that the region is being denied its rightful share of waters from the Krishna river.

A mood change in Telangana could have a huge influence on voting in the state. There are 294 seats in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly. Out of this 107 are from Telangana and Coastal Andhra Pradesh sends 134 representatives to the state Assembly. Lastly, there's Rayalaseema which has 53 seats. Rayalaseema is unique because historically both the TDP and the Congress have almost the same number of seats in the region.

"Naidu cannot expect to gain anything in the Rayalaseema region as the region has historically remained stoic and has displayed neither a pro-opposition or an anti-government swing in voting emotions," a political analyst points out.

In the dissolved Assembly the Telugu Desam had 50 seats in the region as compared to the Congress' 42. Interestingly, the Telangana region was the single largest contributor to the Congress' total tally of around 100 seats.

But Chandrababu Naidu hasn't earned his political spurs for nothing. Naidu has already come to terms with the fact that things are not looking too bright for the TDP in the coming elections and has unleashed a number of election eve sops which have taken even his detractors by surprise.

The Naidu government had switched to welfare mode first with the 'One Crore Sops' (Koti Varalu as it popularly known in Telugu), which, according to government figures has already covered 1.5 crore beneficiaries) under which houses, ration cards, house sites, individual sanitary latrines, pensions and other benefits were envisaged much before the assassination attempt on him by the naxals and subsequent dissolution of the state Assembly in November 2003.

Then came a spate of relief measures for the farming community such as interest rebate and the Rytu mitra (self-help group for farmers) scheme among others. The last minute decision to constitute a new Pay Revision Commission for state government employees was also part of the poll eve wooing by the TDP.

Certainly, the ruling party has strong advantages in its favour. The first and foremost among them being that there is no visible uniform anti-incumbency wave, according to political observers.

Though things are clearly different in the Telangana belt only a general level of dissatisfaction exists among the marginal and poorer sections in the coastal region which is well with in the manageable limits, TD detractors admit.

The other factors in favour of the ruling combine are the organisational capabilities and the cohesion of both the TDP and BJP. The Congress, which has been out of power for nine long years, is in no position to match the TDP in terms of resources apart from facing inherent organisational problems.

But this all seems to be of little assurance to Naidu whose avowed wish is to continue in power till the Vision-2020 objectives are achieved in the state.

Additionally, the clout that Naidu enjoys with the Vajpayee-led NDA government may get significantly diminished if the Congress-TRS alliance gains ground. Out of the 16 Lok Sabha seats from the Telangana region 13 seats are with the TDP-BJP combine.

Analysts point out that if the Congress had not aligned with the TRS it definitely would not have won a single seat. The alliance with TRS has almost changed the situation overnight to the disadvantage of the ruling combine.

The TDP had 29 representatives in the dissolved Lok Sabha while Congress had only five seats from Andhra Pradesh. Riding on the Vajpayee wave in 1999, the BJP had won seven Lok Sabha seats. But a repetition of the 1999 show seems unlikely for the TDP-BJP combine now.

On the other hand the TRS, which was formed just before the local body elections that were held in Telangana in 2001 cornered around 18 per cent of the votes in that elections. Private surveys put the average voter share of the TRS now at 21 per cent.

Though the TRS has emerged as a formidable force mainly at the cost of the Congress party in this part of the state, the alliance has turned the situation in Congress' favour.

While Congress move to give away a whopping 42 Assembly seats to TRS may sound too liberal to many, insiders argue that in 21 out of the total seats offered to TRS the Congress had no foothold. The Congress is expected to part with another 25 seats to CPI and CPI(M) in the state.

As one senior CPI(M) leader put it, there is going to be a royal electoral battle this time in Andhra Pradesh, provided the Congress party takes enough care in selection of its candidates which will be a key factor.

As far as TDP is concerned, Chandrababu Naidu is expected to replace at least 50 sitting party MLAs in the dissolved Assembly. For Naidu, winning is the only criterion that matters now.