The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has estimated India’s economy would grow 6.2 per cent in 2013-14.
On Thursday, the Central Statistics Office had pegged growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for 2012-13 at five per cent. For this financial year, NCAER had projected the economy to grow 5.6 per cent.
NCAER has projected the government’s fiscal deficit this financial year at 5.8 per cent of GDP, against the Centre’s target of 5.3 per cent. Budget 2012-13 had projected the Centre’s fiscal deficit at 5.1 per cent of GDP.
In its latest review, NCAER said all the three segments of the economy — agriculture, industry and services — were likely to record better growth in 2013-14. Considering the prospects of a good monsoon, it projected agriculture to grow 2.9 per cent, against 1.8 per cent in the advance estimates. While industry is projected to expand 4.5 per cent, against the advance estimate of 3.12 per cent, the services segment is estimated to grow 7.7 per cent, against 6.58 per cent.
In the first half of this financial year, the economy grew 5.4 per cent. The finance ministry feels for the entire financial year, growth would stand at least 5.5 per cent, against the advance estimate of five per cent. The NCAER report projected Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation for 2012-13 at 7.7 per cent year-on-year.
Last month, the RBI had projected WPI-based inflation to fall to 6.8 per cent in March from 7.2 per cent in December.
Inflation data for January would be released on February 14.
The report added weak external factors and subsidies contributed to the slow growth and widened the government’s fiscal deficit, which in turn led to high inflation in 2012-13.
Budget 2012-13 had estimated subsidies to be restricted to 1.9 per cent of GDP. However, after P Chidambaram took charge as finance minister, he pegged the figure at 2.4 per cent.
In the April-December period, the government’s fiscal deficit had already touched 78.8 per cent of the Budget estimate of Rs 5.14 lakh crore.
The NCAER report projected the country’s current account deficit this financial year at more than four per cent of GDP. In 2011-12, it stood at a record 4.2 per cent. In the first half of this financial year, current account deficit stood at 4.6 per cent, against four per cent in the corresponding period of 2011-12.
