The Planning Commission is mulling to cover eventualities — such as a rising dollar or sudden turmoil in world markets — and their domestic impact in the final 12th Plan document.
Officials say the last meeting of the Commission saw some members raising the issue of factoring in such eventualities in the final Plan document.
There would not be any re-thinking on the targets set for the 12th Five-Year Plan in the approach paper, which the National Development Council (NDC) cleared at a meeting in October last year. Altering these targets would require new clearance from the NDC. Officials said sectoral targets, goals and approaches would also remain according to the approach paper. “The only thing which could be altered,” said a senior official, “is the first volume of the final Plan document, which contains strategies and goals.”(Click here for FIRM NUMBERS)
The approach paper to the 12th Plan had talked of two scenarios — one, with a target of an average annual GDP growth of nine per cent and another with 9.5 per cent during the Plan period. The first one looks more realistic. The Commission had revised its target downwards to 8.1 per cent for the 11th Plan (2007-12) from nine per cent earlier. Despite a recent deceleration in the growth process, the economy is set to meet target. The approach paper said wholesale price index-based inflation would have to be 4.5-5 per cent for achieving nine per cent growth and the industry’s growth rate would have to be around 9.6 per cent every year against 7.4 per cent in the 12th Plan.
The average annual growth rate of the services sector was targeted at 10 per cent, which is the same as during the 11th Plan.
The Approach Paper to the 12th FYP had fixed a target of 4 per cent agriculture growth for achieving the 9 per cent GDP growth, while mining was targeted at 8 per cent, manufacturing at 9.8 per cent.
Last week, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia had said it would be challenge to achieve 9 per cent growth rate during the 12th Plan period. “Right now, the global economy does not look good,” he said. “At the moment, I feel that 9 per cent (annual economic growth rate) is still feasible but more difficult than it was six months ago.”
India’s economic growth decelerated from 2008-09 when global financial crisis deepened following the collapse of US financial services icon Lehman Brothers. Before that, the economy had been growing by 9 per cent in the preceding three years. As such, the commission is now thinking of analysing the external eventualities as euro zone is facing turmoil.
