India’s November exports increased by 26.8 per cent to $18.9 billion year-on-year, prompting government to exude confidence that overall shipments this financial year may breach the target and touch $215 billion.
Imports for November grew at a much slower pace of 11.2 per cent, to $27.8 billion.
The $8.9-billion trade gap is manageable, said Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar, while releasing initial merchandise trade estimates for November. The government, meanwhile, is keeping a close watch on developments in some European economies.
Khullar said events in Ireland, Spain and Portugal could affect Indian exports. “These are big economies and slowdown in them will affect global economy.”
For the April-November period, exports have grown by 26.7 per cent to $140.3 billion, while imports clocked $222 billion, expanding 24 per cent. The trade balance for the first eight months of 2010-11 works out to $81.7 billion.
If the current trend continues, the country could end-up with a trade deficit of $120 billion.
“I am not sanguine. One blip on crude prices and my import bill suddenly zooms. On pro-rata basis, we are looking at $120 billion, with a caveat that if oil prices go up, it could be $130-135 billion,” Khullar said. Crude oil prices are ruling at $87-88 per barrel. “Exports are doing pretty well... At this rate, four months from now, you are looking at anywhere between $210 billion and 215 billion,” Khullar said.
Earlier, the government had set an export target of $200 billion for the current financial year, against the shipments of $179 billion in 2009-10.
