Nuclear deal: All eyes on Sonia, BJP now

Efforts are on to evolve a broad-based national consensus, we are committed to see that the process is carried forward, says PM.

With Congress President Sonia Gandhi back from her China visit, bureaucrats and government managers are asking themselves if they will get the political clearance to talk to the United Progressive Alliance's (UPA's) arch enemy, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to get its backing for the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement.

Reflecting this, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today said "efforts are on to evolve a broad-based national consensus" and it was not the end of the road for the deal.

"We are committed to see that the process is carried forward," Singh said at a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel here.

"The next 36 hours are crucial," said a former Indian ambassador to Washington.

"If the agreement is to be sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the end of November, we need a domestic consensus before the Parliament session", he said.

The session begins on November 15. The Left and the UPA leaders are going to meet for the last time on the agreement on November 16 but both sides say there is no common ground on the issue.

After talks with the US and the Left, the government finds itself in a "complicated situation." Yesterday, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee talked with US Secretary of States Condoleezza Rice.

Mukherjee also spoke to CPI(M) Politburo member Sitaram Yechury. After this series of talks, the government managers are tight-lipped about the status of the deal. A senior minister said, "There are major complications in the issue."

The BJP is, however, upset it hasn't been consulted on an important foreign policy issue and is willing to offer the government support provided it tells the party what caps and prohibitions have been put on India's strategic programme.

"I understand the limits to what the government can tell us. But so far they have told us nothing. The prime minister had one meeting with us while the UPA has had no meeting. So we're out of the loop. Until we can assess the damage to our future strategic programme, it is hard for us to make a judgement," said a top BJP manager and a member of the party's National Executive.

This is what BJP President Rajnath Singh told US Ambassador David Mulford when they met two days ago "" that assurances the US envoy was making should have come from the UPA government.

At the heart of the BJP's objection is the need to publicly demonstrate that for all its bluster and political posturing, the Congress needs its support for the deal. The Congress is loath to yield ground on this. It is a political call that only the Congress president can take, say party managers.

The BJP is being extra cautious because it has been stung once. On the pensions Bill, the UPA was on the verge of securing a consensus and the leader of House Pranab Mukherjee approached leader of Opposition LK Advani just when the Left parties threw a spanner in the works.

Till the previous day, the BJP was told the Bill would be introduced in Parliament but the government reneged and didn't bother to inform the BJP. The party does not want to be in a similar situation again.

The US Congress needs 90 days to hear testimonies and for an up-and-down vote. Before that, the agreement has to clear the IAEA and the NSG. It is now believed the IAEA may take less time than previously assessed because several countries have assured support to the agreement.

But it is the politics and not the diplomacy of it that is awaiting a verdict.