India became a class of one and won a major victory in Vienna today when delegates at the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (or NSG) finally reached a consensus and approved the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement after almost three days of continuous debate and consultation.
What India needed was a waiver from the NSG to engage in nuclear commerce without signing the Nuclear non-Proliferation treaty (NPT). However, against the background of illegal sale of nuclear technology to countries like DPR Korea, at least three countries said they needed many more assurances from India that it would never conduct a nuclear test again. These countries also wanted assurances that India would not pass on uranium enrichment technologies to other non-signatories of NPT.
Ireland and Austria demanded India amend the draft. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee issued a covering statement (full text on Page 12), which spelt out and emphasised India’s voluntary moratorium on testing. However, he said nowhere that India would not test again. This was repeated by Chairman of the Atomic Energy Board, Anil Kakodkar. Mukherjee also stressed India’s commitment to non-proliferation but added that as NPT was discriminatory, India would not sign it.
This testament of India’s nuclear doctrine appears to have been accepted as India’s commitment to non-proliferation. Achieving this cannot have been easy because, as India is not a member of NSG, it was the United States that was doing the heavy lifting for New Delhi.
Understandably, at the end of the day, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was jubilant. President Bush called him personally to congratulate him, as did the heads of half a dozen countries. Sonia Gandhi feted both him and Pranab Mukherjee. Political sources said that the BJP would repeat that the deal was done in secrecy. But the government has its arguments ready.
Officials told news agencies in Vienna that talks had overcome misgivings expressed by Austria, Ireland and New Zealand. As a result, Saturday’s session produced “a total consensus” on the deal, a delegate was quoted as saying.
Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh held discussions with Pranab Mukherjee and National Security Adviser M K Narayanan. The Prime Minister discussed with Mukherjee and Narayanan reservations expressed by countries like Austria and New Zealand over the draft waiver as well as reported Chinese opposition to the move to grant India the waiver.
Sources said the Indian leadership was a little surprised by the Chinese vehemence late in the NSG discussions last night. It finally left the discussions altogether. India’s argument for retaining the option of testing has consistently been that it lives in a rough neighbourhood inhabited by two nuclear powers, China and Pakistan.
For obvious reasons, this annoyed China. The assessment of the Indian political leadership is that without China, the opposition of the other countries – Ireland, New Zealand and Austria – weakened.
Although the ‘concessions’ made by the Indian side to secure the NSG waiver are yet to be made public, a cost benefit analysis suggests India is unlikely to lose much. All that India did was to reiterate its unilateral moratorium on testing: subject to the neighbourhood threat perception remaining at the level it is.
It is an objective reality that it will take another 15 years for India to be in a position to become a net exporter of nuclear and enrichment technology, so concessions made now can always be renegotiated later. Sources said President Bush’s assurances to Congress on testing and exports could curtain India’s maneuverability. But this was a small negotiating sacrifice. “It will help them overcome opposition and say they’ve won,” a source said.
