State-run oil companies received only $10.5 billion in dollars via the RBI's special swap window, below market estimates of $11-16 billion, JPMorgan said in a report on Friday.
The estimates are based by subtracting FCNR and Tier 1 inflows from weekly changes in FX reserves, under the premise that any concessional swap inflows not absorbed into reserves were used to lend to state-run oil companies.
These oil companies have been sourcing 60% of their dollar demand since October 18 in markets, JPMorgan estimated, noting "the oil window has largely ceased to be active today."
Given the "relative stability" in the rupee since mid-October, it concluded that the impact of the oil swap window is much less important, with the rupee instead remaining supported by the narrowing current account deficit.
Traders have feared the rupee would weaken as oil companies resume sourcing dollars in markets.
Oil companies must also pay back the dollars borrowed from the RBI starting early next year, although RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has said it is willing to roll over the swaps to avoid undue pressures on the rupee.
