As positions hardened between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the issue of a change in speaker of the Uttar Pradesh assembly, there was talk among a number of the political groups in UP that the denuouement could be Presidents rule.
BSP leaders indicated that, while their chief, Kanshi Ram, would continue to talk to the BJP, he would actually be quite happy if the arrangement broke down over changing the speaker, and the BJP did not get a stint in power.
Chief minister Mayawati is scheduled to hand over the reins of the state to a BJP leader (expected to be Kalyan Singh) as per the six-month power sharing agreement between the two parties. The BSP recently took the position that it would only hand over power if the BJP agreed to a BSP nominee in place of Speaker Kesri Nath Tripathi, a BJP nominee.
The BSP is apparently willing to have Presidents rule imposed if the centre assures that elections would soon be held and that no inquiries or other antagonistic measures taken against Chief Minister Mayawati. Ram apparently counts on increasing the partys share of votes if elections are held soon after Mayawati loses her government.
Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav too is said to favour early elections. His calculations, according to SP leaders, is that the SP would gain, having been the chief opposition over the last six months.
The Congress also yesterday indicated that it was willing for Persidents rule, except for its leaders fear that a group of its MLAs would defect to the BJP, in case it were able to win over enough other MLAs to form a government. About 20 Congress MLAs are said to be ready to join hands with the BJP.
A senior party leader, however, pointed out that, even if that were true, they would not do it once Presidents rule was in force, since it would then be up to Governor Romesh Bhandari to accept a BJP claim or recommend fresh elections.
In a climate of general opposition to the use of article 356, it is felt that there would be all-round agreement among the non-BJP, non-BSP forces to intervene in Uttar Pradesh should the BSP-BJP alliance collapse under its own contradictions.
There is also talk of Bhandari assuring Mayawati that she could continue as a caretaker chief minister until elections are held, if her government recommends the dissolution of the state assembly.
Bhandari, known to be close to Yadav, is reported to have consulted constitutional experts on the likely scenarios after September 21.
He is credited with the view that the statutory provision of a government being in office at the pleasure of a state governor could not be manipulated by parties by entering into convenient, power-sharing agreements.
Within the United Front, the developments in Uttar Pradesh are being closely monitored, though there is an agreement that its leaders should not voice their opinions openly. In any case, except for the Samajwadi Party, other constituents of the Front have little presence or strength to matter in the present situation.
On his part, SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav is waiting in the wings for a collapse of the alliance so that he could turn the consequent fluid situation to his advantage. BJP leaders have already cautioned their allies in the BSP not to precipitate matters, and invite the wrath of the SP cadre, which would ride high during Presidents rule. A belligerent Yadav is said to be only too keen to exploit a fluid situation, and get back at BSP leaders/cadres for targetting SP cadres during Mayawatis tenure.
A United Front parliamentary delegation recently visited several places in the state, and looked into alleged cases of victimisation of SP workers. Members of the delegation, however, were divided on the issue of recommending Central rule to the government. A Janata Dal MP who was part of the team said if the coalition collapsed on its own, there would be little opposition even among Left MPs to invoking article 356.
Fear of Mulayam Singh Yadav ruling by proxy during Presidents rule would force the BSP to tone down its hardtalk with the BJP. But even if an agreement is hammered out this time, the new government would be vulnerable, and even small developments could affect its tenure. In any case, few can approve of the office of speaker being involved in a political deal, a senior cabinet minister said.
