Performance matters most in Maharashtra

In a Lok Sabha election that threatens to mimic an Assembly poll, the background and performance of individual candidates is going to be the deciding factor in Maharashtra (April 20 and 26) rather than a positive endorsement of the leadership abilities of either Atal Bihari Vajpayee or Sonia Gandhi.

Maharashtra is neither witnessing a wave, nor is there anything like a "feel good" factor, say observers.

Because of the complex alliance patterns, it will be impossible to predict the manner in which voters are going to behave until all the nominations have been filed and withdrawals taken place, they say.

Yesterday, the Congress decided to field actor Govinda against Petroleum Minister Ram Naik from Bombay North.

But at the same time, in Parbhani and Bhandara, two seats that the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had claimed despite having come third in the last election, two Congress candidates filed their nominations, providing a glimpse of how upsets can happen in the state.

Shamim Ahmad and Indra Kumar Rahi filed their nominations despite the fact that the NCP has already named its candidates ""Praful Patel from Bhandara and Suresh Verpurkar from Parbhani.

Although the Konkan and Mumbai seats are likely to be retained by the Shiv Sena and the BJP as has been the case traditionally, the contest is going to be fierce in western Maharashtra and Marathwada and unpredictable in Vidarbha that sends 11 MPs.

The launching of the Swatantra Vidarbha Aghadi, the party that is agitating for Vidarbha state, is being backed by former MPs Prakash Ambedkar and Banwarilal Purohit.

Although its performance is not expected to be spectacular, it will succeed in eating into the Congress as well as the NCP votes because informal assessments put their strength at around 10 per cent of the popular vote.

But the demand for a separate state has not crystallised in a movement therefore, whether the political momentum will be sustained for another three weeks is a moot point.

The real fight will be in western Maharashtra where the core competence of all political personalities is measured by the number of boards of co-operative banks that they figure in, the number of schools and colleges that they have investments in and the sugar factories they own.

In Baramati, that is Sharad Pawar's constituency for instance, the recent defection of one of his right hand men to the BJP, is seen as the first sign that things are not going well for Pawar in the region.

Constituencies like Khed and Satara, considered pocket boroughs of the NCP, are likely to be hit by the Sena this time because of the incumbency factor.

Everything, observ-ers say, depends on how much work a constituent has done. Solapur, the home town of Chief Minister SK Shinde, is riven between the Congress and the NCP, and only Shinde can ensure victory. Whether he will run the risk of losing from the constituency remains to be seen.

"The situation is not good for the BJP-Sena. But it is doubtful if the Congress-NCP will be able to take advantage of this," said a Sena supporter.