PM to decide on military assistance to Nepal

A meeting of top government and military officials including National Security Advisor MK Narayan and Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran will be called by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to take a final decision on the resumption of military supplies to Nepal and the manner in which this should be linked to the restoration of democracy in the Himalayan nation.

Foreign Minister K Natwar Singh has been quoted as saying that the resumption of arms supplies will be unconditional and will happen 'soon'.

However, it is unlikely that this will be done without some debate, especially now that the CPI M, an important supporter of the ruling UPA government has said the decision to resume supplies is unjustified.

For the last ten days, there has been high level engagement in the Indian government - between the military and the foreign office - on the complex issue of resumption of military supplies. The foreign office believes that Nepal cannot do without arms from India and feels it can leverage this as a way to make the King of Nepal do India's bidding.

However, the Indian Army believes that already, the delay in continuing military help to Nepal when it needs it, has damaged Army to Army relations which go back more than half a century. Eighty per cent of Nepal's military supplies come from India.

And there is in the RNA (which is now a major centre of power in the Nepalese establishment) a group that is pro-India. The Indian army believes this group should be strengthened, not weakened.

Providing military help to Nepal will help this group consolidate itself. Otherwise the drift to nations that appears friendlier to Nepal than India -Pakistan and China -would be natural.

The depth of relations between the Royal Nepal Army and the Indian Army is not fully appreciated. Not only does the Indian Army employ 50, 000 serving Gurkha soldiers, there are also 150,000 ex-servicemen dotted everywhere in Nepal who represent a pro-India constituency.

Political confusion among them about India's role in Nepal's affairs would be disastrous for the Indian Army. The Chiefs of Army Staff of Nepal and India are honorary Generals in each other's armies.

This is not all. According to the terms of the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty and Memorandum of Understanding of 1965, India is required to provide military assistance to Nepal when sought by Nepal.

But Nepal is required to inform India about its intention of purchasing equipment from another country if that equipment is travelling through Indian territory.

Till today Nepal has kept the Indian Army in the military purchase loop. It would not be in India's interest if Nepal went shopping for weapons from a third country.

Neither Nepal nor India can afford a breakdown or violation of the 1950 treaty.

The foreign office is keen that politically, Nepal pay a price for the imposition of emergency, locking up political party leaders and muzzling the press.

Resumption of arms supplies is an item of leverage it is reluctant to give up without extracting some assurances on a roadmap for restoration of democracy.

It is this roadmap that will be discussed when the PM holds the meeting.