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The southwest monsoon is expected to be normal at 102 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), private weather agency Skymet said on Thursday. There is a model error of plus or minus four per cent.
LPA is the average rainfall in the country in the past 50 years. The onset of monsoon is expected to be early, around 27 May and would be fairly strong, Skymet said.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will come out with its official forecast for southwest monsoon sometime later this month.
If correct, the forecast would be a big relief to millions of farmers across the country, who are battling the wrath of unseasonal rain and hailstorm. The government, too, would breathe a sigh of relief, as a good monsoon would keep food inflation in check.
Skymet also discounted any fear of the dreaded El Niño, which, in the recent times, has become a distinct possibility, having an impact on the southwest monsoon. It said that El Niño will not have any adverse impact on southwest monsoon.
“El Niño is likely to continue into the summer months and taper thereafter. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on monsoon performance,” said Jatin Singh, chief executive officer, Skymet.
He said monsoon is expected to be strong across the country and the current phase of unseasonal rain will continue well into May.
Overall, Skymet said there is a 49 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon being normal and 16 per cent chance of it being below normal.
