Property registrations in Mumbai surge, but FY21 to be tough: Crisil

The financial capital has seen a 1.3 times increase in property registrations on lower duties, but FY21 is going to be a difficult year for the realty sector with primary sales likely to decline by 50 per cent in top 10 cities, a report said on Thursday.

Maharashtra has announced a reduction in stamp duty to 2 per cent as against the usual 5 per cent till December and 3 per cent till March 2021, which may have contributed to the 1.1-1.3 per cent surprise jump in property registrations in Mumbai and the rest of the state in the last two months, rating agency Crisil's research arm said.

 

This has made the pandemic-led disruption look like a "blip", it said, making it clear that it is not a uniform story.

"On a full-year basis, we estimate overall primary sales to witness a decline of 40-50 per cent in top 10 cities," it said, adding that while the overall rebound in real estate demand in October was faster than envisaged earlier, its sustenance post the festive season will be monitorable.

Affordability across India's top-10 cities has improved by up to 35 per cent over the past five years, given favourable interest rates and a reduction in property prices, it noted.

The Mumbai Metropolitan Region, National Capital Region and Pune have reported a higher improvement in affordability as compared to Bengaluru and Hyderabad because of pricing pressure, the report said.

A favourable, buyer-centric market has created an opportunity for first-time homebuyers and fence-sitters as well as resale flat buyers, the note said, adding renewed interest of non-resident Indians in sales is also being observed.

Pointing out to the numbers reported by listed realty players, it said such companies' performance indicates that the second quarter saw better-than-envisaged growth and the momentum is expected to continue in the second half of the fiscal as well.

Developers in southern India have performed better than the rest of the country, as the region has a larger share of branded developers, it said, adding decline in the first half for the top 7 listed developers has been in the range of 10-20 per cent compared to a fall of 50-60 per cent in top 10 cities, indicating a shift towards key builders.