India can achieve 9.5% average economic growth in the 12th Five-Year Plan, provided steps are taken to push agriculture growth rate to 4.2% and manufacturing to 11.5%.
According to the growth scenarios given in the draft Approach Paper to the 12th Plan (2012-17), it is possible to achieve high economic growth on back of robust performance in the other sectors of the economy.
These projections were provided in the document which has recently been approved by the Full Planning Commission headed by the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
The commission, however, has settled for 9% economic growth, although Singh indicated that it is possible to raise the growth target to 9.2% in the 12th Plan.
"... We will be working on a growth rate of 9% per annum, but we will also keep open the possibility of raising the growth rate, if the domestic and international situation improves, to 9.2%," Singh had said after the commission meeting on Saturday.
However in order to achieve 9.5%, the government will have to raise farm sector growth target to 4.2% from estimated 3.3% in the 11th Plan (2007-12).
Although the commission had set a target of 4% growth in 10th Plan (2002-07) also, but country could achieve 2.3%.
Similarly, the panel would have to raise the growth target of manufacturing to 11.5 in 12th Plan from estimated 8.3% in the current Plan.
The other important areas include electricity, gas and water supply where commission suggests that 9% growth is required to achieve 9.5% economic growth in next Plan.
Electricity, gas and water supply combined together are expected to register a growth rate of 6.4% in current Plan which is lower than 6.8% achieved in the 10th Plan.
