By 2050, the global population will surpass nine billion people (it’s now seven bn). Sarita Nayyar, managing director, World Economic Forum, talks to Sanjay Jog on how to address the issue. Edited excerpts:
What is the WEF’s road map on a new vision for agriculture?
This initiative is led by 26 global companies. It addresses the major challenges of global food and agricultural sustainability, based on a vision of agriculture as a positive contributor to food security, environmental sustainability and economic opportunity. To advance this, the map outlines a framework for action to implement business-led and market-based solutions, explicitly linked to national development priorities.
Through leadership-level brainstorming in Tanzania, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, the US and Switzerland, the initiative engaged 350-odd leaders of business, government, civil society, international organisations and academia. This catalysed country-level partnerships in Tanzania, Vietnam, Indonesia and Mexico to put the ideas into action.
What are the innovative models that can spark the necessary change in agriculture and enabling food security?
Over the past three years, the food security and economic crises have highlighted both the urgent need and the potential for developing sustainable agri systems. Nearly a billion people, one of six globally, lack access to adequate food and nutrition. By 2050, the global population will surpass nine billion people, and the demand for agricultural products is expected to double. The world’s growing population, much of it more prosperous and more urban, will demand more quantities and different types of food. Changing diets, driven by rising incomes and other shifts, will increase demand for resource-intensive products such as meat. Global demand for meat will increase 50 per cent by 2025, helping drive a foreseen increase of 42 per cent in grain demand. To meet growing demand in the next 20 years, farmers will need to increase production by 70-100 per cent, and reduce post-harvest loss.
At the same time, the world’s agricultural systems will be increasingly challenged by water scarcity, climate change and volatility, raising the risk of production shortfall. Substantial gains in agricultural productivity can be realised through investment, innovation, policy and other improvements. However, realising these will require exceptional collaboration among stakeholders in the value chain — governments, companies, multilateral and civil society organisations, farmers, consumers and entrepreneurs.
How can investments be attracted to boost food security and, thereby, spur economic growth?
Significant increases in both public and private sector investment are needed to raise agricultural productivity and food output in a sustainable manner. Enabling significant increases in private sector investment will require, in many cases, improvements in the business-enabling environment of individual countries. These include policies (covering laws, regulatory requirements and customs rules) that channel benefits back to the farmer. Such policies should include provisions to increase investment in transport, agricultural storage and other physical infrastructure. And, to assist smallholder farmers with risk management through accessible agriculture statistics or innovative financing and information technology that results in greater price transparency and stronger domestic development programmes. Ensuring adequate property rights is an important enabler of investment.
What are the models adopted by various economies in this regard?
Commitment to action, investment and innovative models of collaboration are required from both public and private sectors, particularly in the developing world. Increased investments in food value chains can be achieved by incentivising private investment through improved risk management and policy solutions; and fulfilling public sector funding commitments. National and regional partnerships to accelerate public-private investment in sustainable agriculture should be pursued. For example, the ones facilitated by the WEF ‘New vision for agriculture’ initiative in Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico, Tanzania. Effective risk management tools to accelerate responsible investment should be developed, including innovative finance and affordable index-based insurance.
Improving the functioning of agricultural markets is a vital priority. This requires extensive improvement to policy and infrastructure, as well as increased transparency through improved data collection, sharing and monitoring. Technology innovation and distribution should be accelerated through partnerships and policy reforms, to address local needs for improved productivity, sustainability and nutrition.
