Chief statistician T C A Anant feels that 7.7 per cent growth in the first quarter of this financial year can deliver 8 per cent growth for 2011-12. He tells Sanjeeb Mukherjee that a slowdown in construction activities could be blamed on high interest rates and low demand — this has also affected cement sector and hence mining. Edited excerpts:
The first quarter growth is 7.7 per cent. Based on that, what is your projection of the full year growth?
At present, we have too little information to accurately guess the full year growth. Those who are currently forecasting are doing that based on some assumptions depending upon our initial forecast. Being a statistician, we cannot guesstimate what will happen. But, what we can see is that statistically speaking, in ordinary circumstances, 7.7 per cent growth is in line with 8 per cent annual GDP growth.
To which factor do you attribute the slowdown in construction activity?
There could be some impact of high interest rate on construction, but demand drop is also a factor.
Among the sectors that have shown a sharp drop is mining. It has fallen to 1.8 per cent in Q1 this fiscal as compared to 7.4 per cent in previous Q1. What could be the reasons?
Mining comprises various elements, which are fed by domestic and foreign demand. It seems demand has been the main reason for this fall. Take, for example, cement. It is one of the components of mining. This has fallen because of slowdown in construction activity. In the short and medium, it can be said that fall in mining is due to demand.
Will slowdown impact jobs?
Jobs in India are not directly impacted due to manufacturing, but impacted more by agriculture. Last year, agriculture was good, so also have been in the first quarter of this financial year. Hence, any impact on overall employment looks unlikely.
