The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a higher than expected 4.4 per cent rate in the first quarter of the current fiscal. GDP growth was 6.1 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal. The performance of the agriculture sector is, however, suspected as the figures released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) show a 2.3 per cent growth despite a fall in the production of foodgrains and commercial crops during the rabi season (which ends in June).
According to data furnished by the department of agriculture and cooperation, the production of rice and wheat has gone down by 6.9 per cent and 9.4 per cent, respectively, in the agriculture year ending 2001.
Production of coarse cereals and pulses is down by 14 per cent and 24.4 per cent, respectively, the data indicates. This data has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q1 of 2001-02.
Among commercial crops also, oilseeds and cotton production has decelerated by 22.6 per cent and 19.3 per cent, respectively, during the Rabi season of 2000-01. Despite this, sharp fall in production reported for the year ending June 2001, the Q1 (April-June) growth for agriculture is reported to be 2.3 per cent, up from 0.6 per cent in Q1 last year.
Sectors whose growth rates have fallen in comparison to Q1 last year include manufacturing, mining, electricity, construction and trade. The quarterly GDP estimates released by CSO today state that the quarterly GDP for the current fiscal at factor cost at constant prices is Rs 2,99,941 crore as compared to Rs 2,87,168 crore in Q1 of 2000-01.
GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q1 this year is estimated at Rs 5,02,900 crore as against Rs 4,62,470 crore in Q1 last year, thereby signifying a growth of 8.7 per cent.
GDP growth in the first quarter of 2000-01 was powered by growth in manufacturing, construction and trade, hotels, transport and communications sectors. In Q1 this year, however, the growth rate for manufacturing has fallen to 2.3 per cent from 7 per cent in the corresponding period last year. Construction growth is down to 2.5 per cent from 8.4 per cent last year and mining and quarrying has reported a zero per cent growth compared to last years' level of 5 per cent.
Electricity, gas and water supply recorded a 3.3 per cent growth in Q1 this year, down from 5.7 per cent last year. Trade, hotels, transport and communication growth also fell to 5.2 per cent as against 9.7 per cent in Q1 of 2000-01.
The services sector, however, fared better with financing, insurance, real estate and business services reporting a 9.9 per cent growth between April-June 2001-02 as against 9.5 per cent growth in the corresponding period of 2000-01.
Community, social and personal services reported 6.2 per cent growth against a 6 per cent growth last year.
As per the latest estimates of the index of industrial production, the mining sector reported a 0.1 per cent deceleration in growth, whereas manufacturing sector recorded a growth of 2.5 per cent and electricity recorded a 2.2 per cent growth rate in Q1. Among the key indicators of the construction sector, cement recorded a 2.4 per cent growth while finished steel recorded a 0.2 per cent deceleration in Q1 as against growth rates of 3.6 per cent and 12.2 per cent, respectively, in Q1 last year.
Among the services sectors, net tonne kilometers reported a zero per cent growth, while passenger kilometers went up by 12.6 per cent as against their respective growth rates of 7 per cent and 5.9 per cent in Q1 last year. Other key indicators like production of commercial vehicles decelerated by 16.2 per cent and cargo handled at major ports decelerated by 5.8 per cent during the period. Aggregate bank deposits grew by 18.6 per cent, bank credits by 12.8 per cent and revenue expenditure of central government by 14 per cent, respectively.
