Q4 GDP growth may be less than 3%: SBI study flags 'forecaster's nightmare'

Lender's chief economic advisor says projection for economy is clouded by significant uncertainties.

India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) could grow by around 2.7 per cent in the January-March quarter, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, State Bank of India’s chief economic advisor, in a report on Thursday.

He expects GDP growth in Financial Year 2021-22 (FY22) to be around 8.5 percent, but warns that Q4 numbers could shift considerably based on revisions of previous quarters.

“Q4 FY22 GDP numbers are due for release on 31 May and it is difficult to comprehend the numbers as a spate of customary quarterly revisions in FY22 could make it a forecaster’s nightmare. We are projecting GDP growth