Kharif sowing has progressed well despite the 14 per cent deficiency in monsoon rainfall till mid-July. But restocking of the depleted reservoirs has been adversely hit. This has caused concern about water availability for both irrigation and hydel power production in the post-monsoon period.
The total storage in the country’s 81 major reservoirs was down 32 per cent from the 10-year average level (normal) on July 15. As many as 79 of the 81 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC) are filled below 40 per cent of their storage capacities.
The combined water stock in all these reservoirs, estimated at 25.54 billion cubic metres (BCM), amounts to just 17 per cent of their total holding capacity. All the major river basins in the country have negative water balance (see chart). The saving grace is that the current position is better than last year when the performance of the monsoon was even worse.
On the upside, the distribution of whatever rains have fallen so far has been satisfactory for farm operations. There have been two spells of good rainfall — in the beginning of June in the southern half of the country and again in the first week of July in almost over the country, barring the north-east. These bouts proved helpful for crop planting.
Though the long hiatus between June 18 and 30 in the advance of the monsoon after a timely start resulted in the overall rain deficit swelling to 16 per cent by June-end, it did not hit sowing, except in parts of central India and some pockets in the north-east. The north-western grain basket, though 18 per cent short of rains, has seen normal to above-normal sowing of rice, cotton, sugarcane and other crops, thanks to irrigation and early July rainfall.
| WATER STORAGE IN RIVER BASINS AS ON JULY 15 (IN BILLION CUBIC METRES) | |||
| River basin | This year | Average of last 10 years | % departure |
| Ganga | 2.372 | 4.362 | -45.6 |
| Indus | 2.984 | 4.460 | -33.1 |
| Narmada | 1.329 | 2.192 | -39.3 |
| Tapi | 1.253 | 2.096 | -40.2 |
| Mahi | 0.602 | 1.109 | -46.7 |
| Sabarmati | 0.015 | 0.142 | -89.4 |
| Rivers of Kutch | 0.070 | 0.224 | -68.7 |
| Godavari | 1.001 | 2.197 | -54.4 |
| Krishna | 8.704 | 10.302 | -15.5 |
| Mahanadi & east- flowing rivers | 1.674 | 3.325 | -49.6 |
| Cauvery & east flowing rivers | 2.592 | 2.925 | -11.3 |
| West flowing rivers of south | 2.950 | 4.290 | -31.2 |
| Total | 25.548 | 37.624 | -32.1 |
| Source: Central Water Commission | |||
The short-lived revival of the monsoon after the 12-day break towards June-end and its rapid spread to all parts of the country by around July 5, causing 2 per cent above-normal rainfall in the first week of July, boosted the pace of crop planting throughout the country.
There has been another lull in the monsoon since July 8, but this has affected chiefly only the meteorological numbers and not agriculture. The cumulative rainfall deficit has worsened from 10 per cent on July 7 to 14 per cent on July 15. This subdued monsoon spell proved favourable for farming in many areas, as it allowed the soils to come to the right state of moisture level for seeding.
The good news is that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is hopeful of monsoon resurgence by tomorrow, which will bring rainfall in the north-west as well as north-east, the two regions that have seen the maximum rain deficit till now, besides other regions. The IMD’s monsoon update issued today has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall in almost all the Himalayan states, west to east, in the next two days. Isolated heavy rainfall has also been predicted in some north-western areas, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
If the IMD’s forecast holds true, it will improve the prospects of the kharif output as well as of reservoir replenishment. Good rains in the remaining part of July, and the next two months will augur well also for groundwater recharge which will enhance outlook for the next rabi cropping season as well.
According to the information received by Krishi Bhawan from states, the sowing of almost all kharif crops, including rice, coarse cereals, oilseeds, pulses, sugarcane, cotton and jute, has so far outpaced last year’s crop planting. Rice, the principal kharif crop, covered 238,000 hectares additional area till July 15. Even coarse grains, grown mostly on rain-dependent lands, have been sown on 1.2 million hectares more area.
The spike in the prices of pulses, though guilty of fanning food inflation, has encouraged the farmers to sow more land with these crops. Consequently, after an erratic monsoon-driven slow start, the sowing of these crops has picked up to cover nearly 700,000 hectares additional acreage. Similar increase has been witnessed in the case of sugarcane and cotton. Oilseed sowing, which began marginally behind schedule due to late rains in the soyabean belt in central India, has more than made up for that lag, thanks to near-normal rains in the first week of July.
