Amid growing hopes of a bumper kharif harvest thanks to further improvement in monsoon rainfall, worries persist over the unabated poor crop sowing in some parts rain-starved eastern region. Overall, nearly 90 per cent of the total normal kharif acreage has already been seeded till August 20 and the standing crops are reportedly in good shape. Water status of most reservoirs is also getting better rapidly and is now just three per cent short of normal.
However, the situation in the East remains grim, with Bihar and Jharkhand declaring all the districts drought-hit and West Bengal putting 11 of its total 18 districts in this category. Over a million hectares of traditional paddy land in West Bengal has remained unsown till now. This may result in an output loss of over 2.5 million tonnes (mt) since among the drought-hit areas are the districts like Burdwan, Birbhum, Nadia and Hooghly where rice productivity is high.
Though the paucity of rainfall in eastern Uttar Pradesh and the Assam-Meghalaya region is also worrisome, being 37 per cent and 27 per cent short of normal, respectively, drought has not been formally declared in these states as crop sowing has not been hit too badly thanks to sporadic showers. The whole of Madhya Pradesh, which was also in the rain-deficient category till about a week ago, has come out of it due to enhanced rainfall.
The governments of drought-affected states are planning to put contingency plans into action. The West Bengal government plans to distribute seeds of short-duration and low water requiring crops like maize, moong (green gram), masur (lentil) and sunflower in the areas where paddy could not be planted till now. Similar strategies are being conceived by other state governments for the drought-ravaged tracts.
A ray of hope for this region has, however, emerged from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) which has predicted widespread showers in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya in the rest of this month. That will help farmers grow coarse cereals, pulses and fodder to redeem some losses.
The latest information on sowing received from states by Krishi Bhavan indicates that nearly 92.3 million hectares had been brought under crop cover till August 19. This is over 8.3 million hectares, or 10 per cent, more than the last year’s corresponding coverage. Paddy, the main kharif staple, too, has gained about 2 million hectares additional acreage which, coupled with better rainfall, may bolster paddy output by four to five mt over last year’s kharif production of 76 mt.
Interestingly, high priced coarse cereals and pulses have been planted over larger acreage in anticipation of better returns. The total area under coarse cereals has already exceeded 19.7 million hectares, up over 2 million hectares from last year. Much of this increase is accounted for by bajra (pearl millet) and maize while land under jowar (sorghum) has shrunk marginally.
| UNSTABLE | |||
| CUMULATIVE MONSOON RAINFALL (AREA WEIGHTED) TILL AUGUST 21 | |||
| Region | Actual | Normal | % Departure |
| Northwest | 460.1 | 441.9 | 4 |
| Central India | 722.7 | 720.5 | 0 |
| Southern peninsula | 573.0 | 511.1 | 12 |
| East and Northeast | 802.2 | 1037.0 | -23 |
| All India | 625.2 | 644.2 | -3 |
| RAINFALL IN DEFICIENT REGIONS TILL August 21 | |||
| Jharkhand | 410.0 | 755.1 | -47 |
| Eastern Uttar Pradesh | 395.5 | 627.0 | -37 |
| Bihar | 521.7 | 706.8 | -26 |
| Gangetic West Bengal | 534.7 | 780.3 | -31 |
| Assam-Meghalaya | 1073.0 | 1468.9 | -27 |
| Western Uttar Pradesh | 429.5 | 543.5 | -21 |
| Source: IMD (Rainfall in millimetres) | |||
Similarly, the pulses acreage has expanded by over 2 million hectares on the back of high ruling prices. Much of this expansion is in acreage under tur (arhar, or pigeon pea), the most consumed pulse, though moong and urad have also made handsome gains.
Cotton sowing is complete. The farmer’s decision to put more area under this fibre crop (10.5 million hectares, against last year’s 9.5 million hectares) has been vindicated as the analysts predict the cotton prices to remain firm this year thanks to expected higher domestic demand and relaxation of curbs on cotton exports.
Sugarcane, the other key commercial crop, has been planted on about 6 million hectares additional acreage. Farmers are looking for good cane prices in anticipation of measures like decontrol of sugar, possible relaxation of curbs on exports and higher prices for ethanol sold to oil companies for doping with petrol.
The total water stock in 81 major reservoirs was estimated by the Central Water Commission at over 75 billion cubic metres (BCM) on August 19. This is about 27 per cent higher than last year’s drought-depressed level though 3 per cent short of normal. Nearly half the reservoirs have reported over 80 per cent of normal storage. Some like Bhakra dam have already opened their flood gates to release excess water.
