Rainfall situation a rerun of 2002

MONSOON WATCH

With only about a week left for the monsoon to officially end, the overall rainfall scenario this year is turning out to be similar to that of the drought year of 2002.

Though the deficiency in total seasonal rainfall (minus 13 per cent till now) may not exactly match that in 2002 (minus 19 per cent), the distribution of rainfall over the whole season, which is more important for agriculture, has been similar to that in 2002.

That year, July was totally dry, followed by very good rainfall in August and against indifferent precipitation in September. This year, too, rainfall in July and September has been more or less similar to that in 2002. But, rainfall in August was lower than in that year.

The extent of the area affected is, however, marginally lower this year. A significant shortfall in kharif crop production is now certain and is even being officially conceded. Putting a figure to the output decline is premature at this stage. For, if the usual post-monsoon showers in October also remain elusive, the production outlook will be affected further.

This apart, October rainfall is critical not only for the standing kharif crops but also for the rabi sowing. The chances of making up, even partly, for the kharif output loss in the next rabi will depend largely on the rainfall pattern in the next few weeks.

As it is, the shortfall in cumulative rainfall has been declining since the beginning of September. At the end of August, overall deficiency had been a mere 6 per cent, but by mid-September it had risen again to 13 per cent. Meteorologists believe that it will deteriorate further to 14-15 per cent by September 30, the official end of the monsoon.

The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has projected monsoon activity to remain subdued in the 7-10 days in most parts of the country. Though the eastern region may get some rains, monsoon activity elsewhere is on the wane. The agriculturally progressive north-western belt is unlikely to get more rainfall this season.

Till September 15, as many as 14 of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions had received deficient rainfall. In terms of districts, 219 (43 per cent) were in the deficiency category with as many as 21 (4 per cent) in the scanty rainfall category.

Critically rain-deficient regions include Punjab, west Uttar Pradesh, west Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh (over 40 per cent deficiency) and Vidharba (over 30 per cent deficiency).

The others in the deficient rainfall bracket (over 20 per cent deficiency) include Jammu and Kashmir, east Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Telangana, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

As a result, a sizable chunk of cultivable land is projected to remain unsown this season. The area sown has shrunk for most crops. Only cotton and oilseeds have gained in area. Cotton area has expanded to 8.22 million hectares from last season's 7.38 million hectares, largely because of good pre-monsoon showers coinciding with the sowing period of this crop.

Oilseeds acreage went up about 13 per cent (see accompanying chart) because of late sowing in August in the areas which could not be covered by normal crops.

However, the condition of the standing rain-fed crops is not very satisfactory in the rain-starved tracts. Most of the coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds planted belatedly in August are reportedly suffering from moisture stress. The grain formation and development is unlikely to be normal, resulting in poor yields.