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IMD Director-General Laxman Singh Rathore tells Sanjeeb Mukherjee that all indications available so far suggest the country might not have a drought for a third consecutive year. Edited excerpts:
Overall, how will this year's monsoon be, though you have said these are early forecasts?
I feel overall, rains in 2013 would be better than 2012. In 2012, we had predicted rains to be around 96 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), while the actual showers were around 93 per cent of LPA. This year, we have predicted that quantitatively, rains are expected to be around 98 per cent of LPA, but with much higher confidence, both in quantitative and probabilistic terms. Definitely, rains in 2013 would be better than 2012. Moreover, the convergence of a large number of models indicates a normal monsoon this year, both national and international.
There has been some talk that rains in the southern-most part of the country will be not so good this year.
No. There is no cause of worry for peninsular India. As of now, the indications are that rains would be normal in the southern parts as well.
What do you anticipate would be the impact of normal rains on agriculture and the overall economy?
The very signal that rains would be normal this year is good for agriculture. But, it must be remembered that even in normal monsoon years, rains might be in excess in some pockets and deficient in some. On the whole though, I feel the monsoon this year would be good for agriculture and the overall economy.
