Real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at 5.5 per cent in the current fiscal, according to the latest review of the economy released by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).
While the farm sector is projected to grow 3.5 per cent, industry and services are expected to record 5.9 per cent and 6.9 per cent growth, respectively, during 2002-03.
According to the NCAER review, inflation for the year is expected to be around 4.5 per cent while the export growth is projected at 8.5 per cent, much below the official target of 12 per cent. Imports are expected to grow 7.6 per cent. Gross fiscal deficit as a percentage of the GDP is expected to be 5.9 per cent.
Leading economic indicators provide mixed signals, but recent production trends in the core infrastructure sectors, spurt in tax collections and exports are encouraging, the report states. Normal monsoon and recovery of global markets raise hopes of better industrial growth, it adds.
The report has pegged divestment receipts at Rs 8,000 crore. Public sector investment is assumed to increase by 12 per cent during 2002-03, it says.
The institute has assumed a world GDP growth of 2.4 per cent.
