Rebels may decide fate of Karimnagar candidates

Rebel candidates, dissidents and money "� are the major factors that is likely to decide the fate of the candidates in Karimnagar district. The district has 13 Assembly constituencies.

Congress and TDP had five representatives each in the dissolved Assembly, besides one Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) candidate who won on Congress ticket.

The district shot into media limelight as Union minister Ch Vidyasagar Rao and TRS president K Chandrasekhar Rao are pitted against each other from Karimnagar Lok Sabha constituency.

G Venkataswamy, a former Union minister and senior Congress leader, who unsuccessfully contested in the last two Parliament elections from Peddapally reserved constituency, is trying his luck for the third time, probably the last, from that constituency.

In the dissolved Lok Sabha, Karimnagar and Peddapally constituencies were represented by Vidyasagarrao and Ch Sugunakumari (TDP) respectively for the two consecutive elections.

The current elections have become an uphill task for Vidyasagar Rao for various reasons. Though Chandrasekhar Rao has committed acts that are almost suicidal, like issuing party B forms in Congress segments, the general resentment among the public against the two-time BJP MP is working in favour of the TRS leader.

Voters in Vidyasagar Rao's native Metpally assembly segment and in other parts of Karimnagar Parliamentary constituency complain about how he was inaccessible in their times of need. This may cost him dearly.

Another major adverse factor against Vidyasagar Rao is that the politically dominant and caste-conscious Velama community is said to be divided over choosing between Vidyasagar Rao and Chandrasekhar Rao, both of whom belong to their community. Political analysts here say that one of the important secrets of Vidyasagar Rao's success has been his community's support.

Metpally BJP MLA Venkataramana Reddy is said to be losing his ground this time. That may also cause considerable loss to Vidyasagar Rao in terms of votes. The TRS candidate and a TDP rebel are said to be ahead of others in this constituency.

Chandrasekhar Rao is also facing uncertainty as he is new to this segment. He has been lagging behind in election campaign in his own constituency as he has to concentrate in other parts of Telangana as the TRS president. Above all, the party symbol -- car -- is also new to the voters as it had fought in the last local body elections on the Janata Party symbol.

The issuing of B-forms in the two Congress segments has also considerably discredited the image of TRS in the district, and is threatening the chances of Chandrasekhar Rao.

The Congress candidates in two Assembly segments in his constituency are said to be not supporting his candidature. Had the seat-sharing been carefully executed by the Congress and TRS in this district, the TDP-BJP combine would have faced a big embarrassment.

While in Buggaram segment, Congress candidate J Ratnakar Rao is facing a serious threat to his prospects in the form of a TRS rebel. This is helping TDP candidate and former MLA S Vishwanatham who may win this election.

In Jagityal and Choppadandi segments, the TDP candidates are facing internal sabotage. TDP rebels in Peddapally and Manthani Assembly segments are actively working against the Peddapally TDP candidate Sutgunakumari. This may prove beneficial to Venkataswamy.

The picture is one of confusion in Karimnagar and Indurthy constituencies with multiple contestants in the fray.

However, Naidu's experiment with new candidates for Karimnagar and Choppadandi may better the prospects of Congress candidates in both the segments. The change of candidate in Maydaram constituency by TDP this time is said to be boosting the prospects of the TRS candidate there.

Except in some Assembly segments like Nerella, Kamalapur and Buggaram, TDP candidates are facing a tough fight in other places. Congress may lose one or two sitting seats but it may also gain to that extent elsewhere. TRS which is contesting in seven out of 13 segments may win three to four seats, according to one assessment. BJP is unlikely to win in all the three Assembly segments.

Though the issues of development and other problems still hold water in the elections, their impact is largely muted by the power of money. Consider this. Every candidate is allegedly 'depositing' between Rs 2,000 to Rs 10,000 with each women self-help group for their support.

There are around 10,000 women self-help groups in the district and their loyalties, till now thought to be with TDP, are said to be fast changing. Certainly, this is bad news for chief minister Chandrababu Naidu who is the chief mentor of these groups.

The caste associations are also targeted and some candidates are said to have paid Rs 1-2 lakh to each association with the promise of more at the time of polls.

According to local sources, some of the independents and rebel candidates have also become big beneficiaries of favours by political parties and opponents themselves.

Also, the days of voluntary participation in the election campaign are over thanks to the luring by political parties. Interestingly, this time women are in much more demand than men. It is said that women are being paid Rs 150 each a day for participating in the door-to-door canvassing. Men are said to be getting Rs 100 each.